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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (149)	1/7/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: FARRIS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1720

Hi, I have your thread for a while now -- you have a very good approach and I enjoy reading your comments. I would like to share a thought I had the other day. In past economic cycles I have noted that toward the end of the cycle customer service levels plummeted. Seems that companies were having to use bottom-of-the-barrel workers and it showed. My experience was that not only was their performance poor, but that their inabilities actually had a negative effect on the organization. Everyone else had to compensate for their errors and productivity actually fell. Also, as workers move up the food chain, they move into jobs that they are not adequately trained for, with the same effect. It is my belief that this, translated throughout the economy drags productivity down and causes a contraction. Recently I am seeing customer service levels go to hell. True I am irritated and maybe over-reactive, but it isn't just an isolated instance, seems very pervasive. That combined with the Asian flu, and the extraordinary gains in the past 3 years, leads me to the belief that the bull is about to stumble. That could be as benign as a 0% gain in the DJI this year, or it could mean a significant correction. My belief is that it will occur sometime in the 3-9 month horizon. The market still has enough momentum to hold up for another 3 months IMO. I would like to hear what the TA people have to say about the overall market in the new future. ALSO, I realize you guys look toward a bit larger cap companies, but you might look at the FAMH chart. I think you will see some interesting things there and would be curious on your TA assessment. I would rattle off a few more, but I know I am a new guy so I will creep on out of here for now. Eric By the way, I am fairly familiar with TA -- used to trade commodities based almost solely on TA, but I like a little more FA nowadays.

To: HeyRainier who wrote (149)	1/8/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: ftth	Respond to of 1720

[Scans] Hi Rainier, if you give me some specifics, I'll be glad to run a scan. You can specify absolute percent increases, or that it be in any percentile you like. I can do horizontal comparisons (qtr vs. immediately prior qtr for past 6 paired quarters) or vertical comparisons (qtr over year ago qtr for past 4 paired qtrs) for both earnings and revenues. In all, there's about 250 parameters I can scan for (practically anything you can think of that's a standard item on a balance sheet / income statement (but not statement of cashflows unfortunately), as well as earnings projections, past earnings surprises, and industry groups. If I don't have to create a custom indicator, it takes about a minute to create and run the scan, then about another 5-10 to get it in a format to post it here. dh