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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (6984)	1/7/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

<Off topic> We know shorting CSCO is a short term intent. At some point one has to cover, very much like they do to the drillers (I'm not shorting the drillers, I repeat). Your 40% yearly growth rate will still be good but with the uncertainty in techs and the overall market I find shorting CSCO at this level makes sense. I'm sure you remember the beating CSCO took early last year and it would be a very profitable trade to short CSCO and covered during that span.

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (6984)	1/7/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

<<<<[Off Subject] Of all the crummy stocks out there why choose CSCO, numero uno of the networkers, as the one to short? It has sported 40%+ per annum growth since inception and continues to take away share from its competitors. It is listed as "must have" on every stock-picker's list (according to Zacks, twenty-five analysts rate it as a "Srong Buy"). Are you guys drunk?>>>> HA!! That's funny, I could have replaced the word "CSCO" in your last post w/ the word "drillers" and change the 2nd sent slightly, dated it 11/1/97 and whala! the future of CSCO becomes even clearer. You're right, everyone loves it. It's trading at 31x june '98 earnings while growing at 24% <estimated> (also keep in mind those earnings are based on pre-asian disaster assumptions. The Asian flu will affect their clients and subsequently those clients will reduce their capital expenditures and hurt CSCO) So, what's left to love. You trying to tell me, that they're better off now that we've had an asian dilemna. These aren't drillers benefiting from a supply and demand imbalance that will likely last for years. They've got competition and the world economy is hurting in the short term. Looks like a slam dunk to me. Besides, I'm hearing some things--- looks like they're going to miss. I could be wrong though? Things are probably fine in the L-T, but I (more my broker I guess) think it is overvalued at this point. -Lucretius