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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16183)	1/8/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

As I write I am looking at Japan- and Korea I see signs of closing above 15000 for a second day- Malaysia Indonesia Singapore and HSI are all heavily down- this cannot be ignored but I see strength of Japan quite reassuring- I think ASEA like BOVESPA and Korea will find some support on this second test of lows- however I have some key levels just below 9000 355 1325 515 on HSI JSKE SINGAPORE Malayasia- these levels are critical for me to watch my concurrent indicator is weakening of Korea and Japan so far these markets are holding on to the critical key support until these supports are taken out I will lurking in the dark to present a strategy. I remain convinced that market has priced worst conditions and we will soon be able to have a second bounce off the supports in these regions but watch out for levels I have posted a close below these levels will impact SPA. Coming out of ASEA into Europe and other markets I see some impact of ASEAN drama but again my feeling is it will result in some slowing down acutely needed- it was not more than couple of weeks after previous employment numbers that evwery one was looking at interest rates rise- economy is still giving two contradictory signal and we need to read in between moves the undercurrents for me Factory orders albeit with inclusion of Airplanes 137% jump over 37% in Oct still show a very much vibrant economy- the service sector wage improvements are in pipe although we will see price stability but product price stability instead of bringing deflationary impact will be countered by improving personnal income and increased demand- we are not in a zero sum game here. Now to right positively in background of carnage in ASEA is something that needs ground eveidence so far we don't have evidence contarary to apparent directionh of economic numbers, as if ASEA has been rediscovered as the major contributing factor of growth for last few years for US economy yes it cannot be understated but san Japan the impact in my very humble opinion is being overstated. I see Japan woes to be over withion next 6 months and ASEA to be on the road of recovery with in 6 months in the mean time we may see some panic building up as major dsupports crack but watch out for levels I hace given compare them daily with closes in ASEA and If you get closes above that Japan will soon lead ASEA higher- don't overlook the fact that Japanese companies which were able to maintain margins at 80 yen will be bursting with profits at 133 - market is short term so we will keep closer view of development but I don't see a calamity hitting the global equity markets- a test of 900 is not a claamity but a break of 880 and test of 770 is what I call a clamity- My levels today are- SOX came back up from 259 to close above 262 I will like this level to be maintained a break of 259 will need some active downside protestion if we do that on closing basis I see no reason for SOX not to reterst 242 a break below that will take SOX down by another 10 -15% it will be a major break of a very key support my next level will be 220- 240 is like my 280 support however my opinion is to look for key supports break and wait to put your trade on the downside only after key supports are taken out. My resistance is 270 275 a close above 280 will definitely take SOX upto 310 Now where this big move will come from - I will suspect a brak of 240 on back of INTC disappointment alongwith TXN and MOT and piercing of resistance above 285 if INTC TXN MOT bring some positive surprises- I will lean on the later and not the former scenerio. SPA Friday is the day to watch look at the perpetual chart and you will notice 4 failures at 992 and five attempts at 900-910 excluding the fluke on 27th 28th Oct- now I will definitely look for Bonds to trade below 120 for market to take out 992 and Friday will be the day- am I shorting the bond for Friday- no I will only hedge myself for me this rally of market and bond wil not continue on Friday one will be hit either bonds on back of strong numbers or markets to retest 930 area in case numbers are weak I will therefore bet by tomorrow on side of strong or weak numbers based on my read of new numbers today. My levels are 980 to be tested on the up and probably a close above it - on downside a close below 962 on SPA will trigger my short indicator. I will expect market to test 980 today in an attempt to close above it lets watch and see- Composite should take out 1630 before ZI see any definitive trend being established-