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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16187)	1/8/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ, "I will therefore bet by tomorrow on side of strong or weak numbers based on my read of new numbers today" R you refering to the PPI data (-0.2%).... weak number, would you be long or short the market short term??

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16187)	1/8/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50167

I see some signs of stability in ASEA- the green shoots are a successful intraday test of supports in HSI - Japan and Hongkong are higher than earlier lows - it would be good to see Japan above 15000 and HSI to close above 9000 after being as low as 8700- one good factor is Jakarta it has shown some kind of bottom it did go up strongly early inthe session but later retreated strongly.It is mix story in ASEA today- Jakarta stability will atleast take some sting out of yesterday worries of Indonesian debacle much as I consider ASEA to be a key for global growth it has to be Japan Korea and China where the real problems will result in global slowdown although we have seen evidence of slowing down but in face of US economy extraordinary performance this cooling down may what was really required- overcapacity and Cheobel led cartels dumping markets with products coming from factories built with subsidised cheap loans may now be curtailed so bringing some slow down this ASEA crisis will also remove dumping of products which really exerted a lot of pressures on manufactureres in the west. I will expect ASEA to rebound nicely very soon although Korea is down today but after five days of solid rally this should have been the case of profit taking- Jakarta and HSI inability to take out supports albeit temporarily still is a first sign of bottoming action- I think we will see the worst be over if levels I have mentioned are not broken on closing basis but jury is still out we can still keep our bias on holding of key supports but caution is the order of the day- I will assume that todays market action will revolve around the spin market puts to the numbers weaker numbers will not help ASEA and SPA it has to be strong numbers showing continued strength in face of ASEAN crisis- this we will probably get- last few weeks we have seen lower than expected PPI's CPI's and strong employment numbers if any ocassion we needed this more it is today- market will certainly be looking for signs of economy growing strongly- the new economy withoput inflation. 980 on SPA is a resistance - aclose below 962 should take us to 943 area early next week a close above 980 will be very helpful- I will bet on long side aboce 967 break. Bonds will sell one full point to 121,14 area. SOX will resist 262 break even I expect some positive action in SOX leading to first suppport at 275 I will only initiate positions if 280 is taken out on closing basis and not once but twice. A break of 260 on closing basis will require put spread to be established I will anaggressive seller of 200's and buyer of 250 2 to one as I strongly believe that any test of lows will also see a very strong rebound and short positions will be difficult to unwind - 200 put looks to me a safe bet to sell for March and long 250 for Feb a calender spread with an exotic price and size put spread for ocassions like this. In case we see break of 962 I will see major selling in banks and oils- even new round in ASEA crisis will now mainly hit the financial sector, for me diversion of sectors will be very evident if selling pressures persists in ASEA. Lets watch for good action on upside today- if market sells off due to strong number alongwith higher hourly earnings I will take the ocassion to go long at supports.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16187)	1/12/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

We are at 930 on SPA but not due to weak numbers but jitters in ASEA took SPA supports out- in my following post I referred to key supports in ASEA which if taken out will impact SPA-SOX and all the other indexes are mentioned- 207.183.153.93 I am right now watching Nikkei HangSang Singapore Jakarta Korea based on my thursday post most of these levels have been violated with Hangseng a full 1000 point lower than the support I thought critical- Singapore is also nearly 200 points lower- now here we are today this morning- HSI-7928 NOW AROUND 8073 MY LEVEL WAS 9000 BREAK JKSE-350 NOW AROUND 352 MY LEVEL WAS 355 BREAK SSEC-1200 NOW AROUND 1212 MY LEVEL WAS 1325 KSII-474 NOW AROUND 475 MY LEVEL WAS 515 Now this is a broad decline based on renewed worries on China and currencies woes as expected we have seen a sharp decline in Dow and SPA the question I need to answer is where do we go from here- I will incline to think that once these supports have been taken out the performance of this market in ASEA will now depend on how SPA reacts to it- they have set the stage and now fund managers would like to see if DOW takes the cue and taske out 7520 on closing basis today in such a case we may be heading for a test of 908 area on SPA- now this test of SPA 908 will coincide with failure of INTC to meet market expectations so INTC bleak announement or failure will tkae the market thru the suports of 243 level on SOX may be 923 will be taken out in the smae session however I am also sure that once tone is set for good earning announcements it will result in a sharp bounce up- INTC alsone cannot take SPA below 908 to 880 area- it has to be series of failures. If INTC and others meet market and beat expectations I will see my resistances on ASEA of 1176 8894 a4955 need to be taken out once these overhead resistances are out DOW below 908 will be a very good bet and that is how I am going to co-relate my moves with Global indexes and individual stock earnings - if 14th INTC is above 74 I will call this as a reversal of SOX from 243- I see 908 as a strong support but also I will look at OEX very closely 432 is an important point for me and I would hate to see levels slip below this we would than need to sell calls and buy puts as I expect a minimum 410 test on the cards and decline to 850 area. I expect selling pressures to subside so far this is not the case but if market takes out 7660 today on DOW I will think that we may see some reversal in HSI. Watch out for China- HSI sell off is based on Chinese firms profitibility and for me it is important that China stay on course if slippage begins in China we are going to see a lot more pressure on ASEA. I wish markets were a simple game but with bonds trading at 123 the yield curve showing a deflation ahead and charts pointing to shortening this whole darn thing I will still be careful to watch out for levels and accordingly plan my steps- Bond weakening will be a good sign- INTC earnings is sword hanging on markets head. 923 is first interim support a break and we visit 908 which should not be taken out- upper resistance is 955- I am biased still on upside I see faer too much of barishness and I also think earnings will beat expectations. I will like to trade between 932 and 923 but will not leave a short position overnight- Earnings shortfalls will put skids under DOW and I will aggressively propose short positions instead of trading shorts 962 break was a trading short but 908 break will be a a long term short rather I will increase my allocation of cash from 20% to 35% - I will like to see two closes but if we see a straight decline than a close below 900 in a single day will be manifestation of a strong downward move although I am not going to bet on it I remain until 923 is broken a person to look for positives but such is the configuration that utmost care is to be the order of the day- earnings and numbers can take us out of this dooldrums ASEA is now at these depressing levles looking for direction from US and probably if we get good numbers which I have a strong believe on we will give the impetus to the markets in ASEA with strong economy low RSI high pessimism and ASEA sitting at 5 year lows this for me is perfect mix for a very sharp reversal- Lets keep our fingures cross.