SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)1/12/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
IKe, For a second I thought everybody on this thread died and went to heaven.. The posts on this thread are way down from those October days... What happened? JT



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)1/12/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: J.T.  Respond to of 50167
 
AQ, On a more serious note, this is becoming a self perpetuating global market feardom. It must be U.S. market strength to calm Asian fears IMHO. And with earnings season in full yonder, Big Six has a chance to speak volumes to the world. JT



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)1/12/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
IKe, One question re your post. And believe me, I read your post with great care. We are at 927.50 SPU area right now. If I may use this analogy, but to not diminish the grave situation at hand: This is like a chess match. None of the Asian supports hold up and so the move goes back to U.S. markets. SPU not doing well, so we go from "macro" to "micro" view and look to INTC. INTC may make the #, but FORWARD PROJECTIONS GET MUDDIED so after INTC back to DOW and "macro" view and back to Asia ad nauseaum. This is "tail wags dog theory". My question is "If there are technical breakdowns in both the "macro" and "micro" big picture, and the fundamentals AS WE KNOW RIGHT NOW HAVEN'T CHANGED, won't these warning signs lead to a self fulfilling prophecy and ultimately lead to a "confidence crisis" and hence potential further market adjustment more than most can anticipate? I see your supports getting cut through like knife thru butter not b/c IKE did not do his homework, but b/c the market is NOW MAYBE TRYING TO TELL US A STORY WE TURN A DEAF EAR TO HEAR OR BLIND EYE TO SEE. Tell your little brother he is "wet behind ears". JT



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)1/12/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: George Mc Geary  Respond to of 50167
 
IQ, Know you are asleep as I post this but here is MOT's earnings report.

newsalert.com

<Motorola Reports Higher Sales and Earnings

Business Wire - January 12, 1998 18:02

SCHAUMBURG, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 12, 1998--Motorola, Inc. today reported higher sales and earnings for both the full year and fourth quarter of 1997.

Sales for the full year rose 7 percent to $29.8 billion from $28.0 billion in 1996. Earnings were $1.18 billion, up from $1.15 billion a year ago. Earnings per share (diluted) were $1.94, compared with $1.90 per share in 1996.

The 1997 earnings include special charges of $306 million before taxes, equivalent to 32 cents per share after taxes, resulting primarily from restructuring decisions to exit several unprofitable businesses that no longer had long-term strategic value to the corporation. Special charges in the previous year, 1996, totaled $136 million before taxes, equivalent to 15 cents per share after taxes. Excluding special charges in both years, 1997 earnings would have been $1.38 billion, or $2.26 per share, compared with $1.24 billion, or $2.05 per share in 1996.

Fourth quarter sales were $8.3 billion, up 8 percent from $7.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1996. Earnings, including the special charges, were $321 million, compared with $238 million a year earlier.
Earnings per share (diluted) were 53 cents, compared with 39 cents a year ago. The 1997 earnings include special charges of $110 million before taxes, equivalent to 12 cents per share after taxes. Special
charges in 1996 totaled $183 million before taxes, equivalent to 20 cents per share after taxes. Excluding these charges, fourth-quarter earnings would have been $393 million, or 65 cents per share, compared
with $357 million, or 59 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 1996.

Net margin on sales was 4.0 percent in 1997, compared with 4.1 percent in 1996, while in the fourth quarter, net margin was 3.9 percent compared with 3.1 percent a year earlier. Excluding special charges,
these margins for the full year would have been 4.6 percent versus 4.4 percent in 1996, and 4.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 1997 compared with 4.7 percent a year ago.

Robert L. Growney, president and chief operating officer, said, "At the end of 1996 we initiated a process of discontinuing programs that had not lived up to their promise and exiting non-strategic businesses. We have now completed that process. A number of important strategic decisions have been implemented
which should have positive impact on the corporation's long-term profitability. In the short term however,
these decisions necessitated special charges which resulted in minimal earnings growth in 1997. Excluding these charges, earnings grew at over one and one half times the rate of sales growth for the
full year. During the fourth quarter, the deterioration of economic conditions in certain Asian markets had an impact in terms of slowing the growth of sales, orders and profits, as well as putting pressure on pricing," he said.

Growney reviewed the following results of Motorola's major operations compared with 1996:

Cellular Products Segment

For the year, segment sales increased 10 percent to $11.9 billion, orders increased 9 percent and segment operating profits were higher.

For the fourth quarter, sales increased 18 percent to $3.6 billion, orders were flat, and operating profits were higher.

Cellular Subscriber Sector (CSS) sales increased in the fourth quarter in Europe and Pan America, while they declined in Asia. Orders also increased, led by Europe and Asia, while they were unchanged in Pan
America.

Motorola's MicroDigital M75 cellular telephone for Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) systems became commercially available. The phone weighs as little as six ounces. In Japan, Motorola announced
availability of the world's smallest Personal Handyphone Systems (PHS) phone. Using digital microcellular technology, the phone can switch automatically from being a home cordless phone to a mobile phone
within the PHS public network. CSS also announced that it would be the first company in the industry to offer its visually impaired customers Braille manuals, large print manuals and audiotape manuals.

Cellular Infrastructure Group (CIG) sales were higher, led by significant increases in Japan and in the Pan American region. Sales also were higher in the rest of Asia, but were significantly lower in Europe. Orders declined, as higher orders in the Pan American region were offset by lower orders in Europe and Japan and significantly lower orders in the rest of Asia.

CIG was awarded a $260 million contract to deploy a Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) system throughout Israel, and received a contract for a $30 million CDMA system in the U.S. Installation of
China's first CDMA system in Beijing was completed. CDMA-based wireless local loop, or WiLL(r), system contracts were received in Indonesia and Kuwait.

CIG won contracts to expand existing Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) networks in China, Sweden and Turkey, and received contracts worth more than $160 million to expand analog
systems in three Chinese provinces.

Semiconductor Products Segment

For the year, segment sales increased 2 percent to $8.0 billion, orders were up 17 percent and segment operating profits were lower, due to a special charge taken in the second quarter related to the decision to phase out of participation in the Dynamic Random Access Memory market. Excluding this charge, operating profits increased.

For the fourth quarter, sales were up 11 percent to $2.1 billion, orders rose 10 percent, and the segment had an operating profit compared with a loss a year ago.

Order growth in the quarter was highest in Europe, followed by the Americas, Japan and the rest of Asia. Among major market segments, orders were higher in communications, industrial, automotive, consumer
and distribution. Computer orders were lower.

The sector announced an agreement with Sarnoff Corp. under which Motorola will produce chips for high-definition television (HDTV) and other consumer entertainment products. With NDS Broadcast Systems and Alps Electric (UK) Ltd., the sector completed development of a chip set for the European Digital Terrestrial Television market.

The sector introduced the M-CORE(tm) microRISC 32-bit reduced instruction set computer architecture tailored for cost-effective, ultra low-power consumer, transportation and industrial products. Motorola and Mitsubishi finalized an agreement that will allow both companies to market system solutions with Motorola's ColdFire(tm) embedded microprocessor and memory functions on a single chip.

Land Mobile Products Segment

Segment sales for the year rose 23 percent to $4.9 billion, orders increased 27 percent, and operating profits were higher.

Fourth-quarter sales rose 16 percent to $1.5 billion, orders were 36 percent higher, and operating profits declined.

Orders in the quarter for iDEN(r) subscriber and infrastructure radio equipment were higher, primarily due to orders received from Nextel Communications, Inc. as it continues the rollout of its nationwide
integrated digital enhanced network in the U.S. and from Nextel International, Inc. for various markets abroad. A contract valued at more than $40 million was received from J-Com Company, Ltd., to expand
the iDEN system it operates in Japan.

Orders in the rest of the sector also increased. Major awards for new ASTRO(r) digital systems and system expansions were received in the District of Columbia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mexico
and the Province of Manitoba in Canada. Other key system orders were received from public safety and utility customers in Illinois, Louisiana, Utah, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, while major radio equipment orders were received in China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands.

Motorola's TalkAbout(tm) and Spirit(tm) series of consumer two-way radios now can be purchased in the U.S. at more than 13,000 retail locations as well as through catalogs. The sector launched the
TalkAbout radio in Taiwan, representing Asia's first Family Radio Service (FRS) two-way radio.

The Smartcard Systems Business announced its initial M-Smart(tm) series of products including a combination contacted/contactless smartcard and two new families of terminals developed for public
transit and campus/ID markets. The business also announced a letter of intent to enter a global marketing alliance with ERG Ltd., a transit fare collection provider based in Australia.

Messaging, Information and Media Segment

Segment sales for the full year declined 4 percent to $3.8 billion, orders declined 12 percent and operating profits were lower as a result of a greater level of special charges related to business restructuring.

Fourth-quarter sales declined 3 percent to $848 million, orders were up 1 percent, and the segment had a larger operating loss than a year ago, due to a restructuring charge related to the planned exit from the retail analog modem business.

Orders in the quarter increased in the Messaging Systems Products Group (MSPG) and in the Multimedia Group (MMG), while they declined in the Information Systems Group (ISG) because of weakness in the
low-end modem market.

MSPG sales and orders in the quarter were higher in the North American Paging Subscriber Division versus depressed levels a year ago. Management believes North American paging operators are continuing
to monitor inventory levels closely in order to improve their financial positions and cash flow. Management also believes that sales by operators to consumers in North America continued to grow.

MSPG sales and orders in Asia were significantly lower than a year ago and pricing pressures increased. These conditions are expected to continue into the first quarter of 1998.

In the U.S., CONXUS Communications deployed an advanced voice paging service in Washington, D.C. and South Florida. It uses Motorola's voice pagers and InFLEXion(r) protocol-based infrastructure.
Carriers in China and Taiwan signed contracts for infrastructure using Motorola's FLEX(tm) one-way messaging protocol.

ISG announced a 56 kilobit host-based software modem that enables manufacturers and users to keep pace with the latest communications technology. Sales increased significantly for frame relay, as well as
cable-based voice and data products. MMG introduced the CyberSURFR(r) Wave second-generation cable modem that will double the throughput of upstream channels to 1.5 megabits from the current 768 kilobits. The group also announced an agreement with Lyonnaise Cable for the use of CyberSURFR modems in its Paris system.

Automotive, Energy and Components Sector

For the year, sector sales increased 12 percent, orders were 12 percent higher, and operating profits were higher. The sector's results are reported as part of the "Other Products" segment.

In the fourth quarter, sales rose 17 percent and orders were 13 percent higher and operating profits
increased.

In its automotive business, the sector was awarded an engine control module program by a German car manufacturer, which also awarded its North American Telematics business to the sector. Telematics
includes products for remote security and information services.

The power electronics business introduced a battery charger for Motorola two-way pagers.

Space and Systems Technology Group

Group sales for the year declined 2 percent, orders were 21 percent higher than a year ago and operating profits were lower, as anticipated due to planned Iridium activity. Results are reported as part of the "Other Products" segment.

In the fourth quarter, sales decreased 36 percent and the group recorded an operating loss compared to a profit last year. Orders were up 120 percent versus the year ago quarter due to the timing of recording
orders from the Iridium program.

The group successfully launched 12 IRIDIUM(r) satellites in the fourth quarter, bringing the total number of satellites in low earth orbit to 46 and setting an industry record for the number of satellites deployed in an eight-month period. Additional testing of paging and telephony functions through orbiting satellites continued successfully. System testing will continue until the start of commercial service, expected at the end of September 1998. As previously reported, Iridium LLC may require additional financing, possibly by the second quarter of 1998, to continue to make contractual payments to Motorola.

The group also designed and developed the tracking, telemetry and control deep space transponder for the Cassini mission to Saturn.

Motorola Computer Group

Group sales for the year declined 1 percent and orders were 1 percent higher. The operating loss was larger than in 1996 largely because of special charges, which in the third quarter related to the decision to
exit the MacOS(r)-compatible computer systems business. Results are reported as part of the "Other Products" segment.

In the fourth quarter, sales declined 27 percent and orders were down 16 percent, as last year's results included significant shipments of MacOS-compatible computers. The ongoing embedded computer product business had a 26 percent increase in sales and a 30 percent increase in orders. The group had an operating profit compared with a loss in the year-ago quarter.

As a result of the acquisition of Pro-Log Corp., the group now offers single board embedded computers based on CompactPCI(r) bus architecture and Intel's Pentium(r) processor, in addition to its
PowerPC(tm) product line. The group announced two new Pentium(r) processor-based motherboards for use in embedded computing applications.

General Corporate

Manufacturing and other costs of sales were 67.8 percent of sales in the fourth quarter, versus 67.6 percent in the year-earlier period. For the full year, manufacturing and other costs of sales declined to
67.1 percent of sales versus 67.9 percent in 1996.

Selling, general and administrative expenses were 18.6 percent of sales in the fourth quarter, versus 19.2 percent in the year-earlier period. For the full year, selling, general and administrative expenses were 18.5 percent of sales, compared with 16.9 percent in 1996, with the increased percentage primarily attributable to the higher level of special charges and greater investment in strategic programs.

Depreciation expense and interest expense each declined as a percent of sales, both for the fourth quarter and full year.

The tax rate for the year ended 1997 was 35 percent, compared with 35 percent in the prior year.

Review and Outlook

Christopher Galvin, chief executive officer, said 1997 was "a year of significant renewal for Motorola that included management changes, discontinuing programs that did not live up to their promise, exiting
non-strategic businesses and beginning a new low earth orbit satellite industry. We believe these actions set the stage for long-term growth."

Galvin said, "We are still facing challenges in the near term, as we expect the economic conditions in certain markets in Asia that affected fourth-quarter results to continue for at least the first half of 1998. We are assuming the cooperative efforts of many nations and the International Monetary Fund will help to stabilize the Asian situation. Largely for this reason, sales growth in both the first and second quarters of 1998 is estimated to be in the range of 10 percent compared with the year-ago quarters. We will continue to control costs, but we will also continue our investments in Asia where appropriate, as well as our strategic investments in technology. Moreover, Motorola's manufacturing presence in Asia should help
lessen the impact of expected lower economic growth and greater pricing pressures from the region.

"Despite the current conditions in Asia," Galvin said, "the region continues to represent a solid long-term growth opportunity for Motorola. The economic restructuring that is occurring in countries such as Korea should help to promote sustained growth in the future. Growth in Latin America remains very strong. We see continued steady expansion in the United States. Growth in Europe is accelerating. We
remain confident that Motorola is building the foundation for profitable growth in the years to come," he said.

Business Risks:

The statements contained in the "Review and Outlook" section and about the continuation of sales and order weakness and increased pricing pressure for products, the planned exit from the retail analog
modem business, deployment and commercialization of IRIDIUM(r) products and services, Iridium LLC financing requirements and any other statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking and
involve risks and uncertainties. The outcome of various efforts to stabilize economic conditions in Asia; the potential that the weak economic conditions in Southeast Asia could spread to countries where
Motorola does a sizable amount of business, including China and Japan; unforeseen expenses in connection with Motorola's decision to depart from various businesses; pricing pressures or a change in the demand for products; product and technology development and commercialization risks and uncertainties; unforeseen expenses relating to the development and commercialization of IRIDIUM products and services; availability of financing for Iridium LLC; the success of strategic decisions to improve performance; the ability of Motorola to contain costs and charges against earnings as a result of any actions taken to improve performance; steady growth in emerging markets; and the factors in Motorola's 1996 Form 10/K-A on pages 14 and 15 of Item 7 and in other SEC filings could cause Motorola's actual results to differ materially from those stated in this announcement. >



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)1/12/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 50167
 
Intraday opening break of 923 and test of 243 did come but a bounce off lows was excellent- 917 held on also 243 was not broken.
ASEA gave a cue for SPA to take out 908 my critical level but no one was ready to take the bait. Tail was unable to wag the dog- As I expected DOW closing higher has impacted HSI and other ASEAN markets. China slippage of more than 5% is quite disturbing and I have been pointing this possibility since last few days- this is not good for the region Chinese markets instability is not yet fully factored and priced by the fund managers- jitters in China a continuing slow down will affect HSI- I would like to see HSI above 9000- my target is that if we take out 955 on SPA and world equity crash becomes a history like so many times before we may see HSI rebounding- MOT earnings does provide a silver lining to dark clouds- forward projections are not as gloomy as whispers were making Fund Managers to believe- hedge funds have prosepered and I seeTigers assets at 15 billion$ Sloane Robinson is also up by 67% the real victims of ASEA crisis were the unit trusts and not the hedge funds- anyone who could have shorted these movements must have closed year very positively aas the ability to short the index and the stocks is not something which a unit trust can do. If this is so somewhere these hedge funds loaded will cash will enter the market big- it is on this account I yesterday wrote that reversal is going to be sharp now if you look at SPA we have another confirmed test of lows at 917 although shy of our 908 level but we had a full 26 point move in SPA from lows to high. I expect at certain level we will see some activity of hedge funds putting on new money where I would think we have this window of opportunity by Friday I think the trend of US will be clearly known in next 72 hours either we take out 955 by tomorrow evening or we go back to 908- my bet is that 955 resistance is doable and my trade would be to intiate long positions once 262 on SOX is taken out -

The reversal yesterday is sign of strength at supports however we need to get some good numbers to get things moving I see some weakness in bonds that is and was my first condition of seeing some movement in the equity market keep looking at the signs of bonds weakness if you see bonds lower to 122,14 you will also see rally all around- I am positive on INTC and as such expecting a number above 93- a number below that will be below whisper and take INTC down to 69 level even lower if forecasts are poor but I believe that we will certainly see some good news on product rotation and high end P making some good inroads.

ASEA was bound to go higher but I have reasons laid out above that once my upper resistance is taken out we move higher much faster but I will look for resistances to be taken out- I still fail to make a move based on individual US charts and I think we need to corelate our read of the markets- individual charts are becoming irrelevant as most pessimistic configurations bring a rebound- at 917 yesterday SOX was at 243 once it was unable to take out that level and INTC went to unchange we pulled the trigger on our shorts at around 924-26 level we got a fill on our shorts at 371/2 market order but covering 940's Febs was decision taken on corelational moves on SPA alone one could not have taken such a decision - one other thing I watch is JPN futures I look at premiums and discounts of these futures to the cash settlement one reason I pulled the trigger on my shorts was I saw a 100 point discount turning to a 60 point discount now this indicated a shift in market sentiment- I knew that DoW is not ready to follow suit-

Now- markets will trade between 932 and 955 I don't think we will take out 955 before tomorrow nor shall we break 932- I am expecting a good run on SOX the configuration tells me that a third test of my 243 level was nice and for me I see this configuration as a move which I have seen earlier 960 back to 910 and bounce to 992- I will expect that once all this life saving packages are in place and Japanese banks rumours of higher losses are discounted since no one seems to talk about Japanese banks hidden profits on bonds- people who have been telling us 'big Japanese sell off' TB's to recover Balance Sheet adequacy ratios are now failing to see that those assets which were expected to be sold are now backbone of strength for Japanses finacial institutions- we had on this thread a lot of discussion with people who raised this specter back in June and July but I see Japan underlying strength with new bond strength I see hedge funds looking for opportunity and all this will depend on how earnings unfold for me DJIA will not disappoint= if fundmental big names meet or beat expectations and SPA rebounds watch out this SPA at 946 has already tech stocks corrected by 40 % lets add another 10 % on Techs but pessimism around banks and other depressed stocks once cleared will and can take SPA much higher.

Levels to watch- 908 and 923 932- on SPA supports
Resistances- 949 955 962 on SPA
SOX 243 solid support a close below it and you short this darn thing along with SPA for a three to four days of soft market.
SOX resistance 255 262 and 267 275- I will look for longing SOX above 262 for a trade which may take me to 290 area.

I will be looking to short the bond below 128,14
I will look to go long Nekkei above 15200 along with HSI buy signal at a close above 9000.

I will change my entire strategy to a near term bearish if-- let me tell you this thing tomorrow- food for some thought?