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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (16307)	1/13/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

JT-off topic Market in my opinion is composition of different scenerios unfolding before us all the time- the only test for me is that one should look into future and make a game plan pen down whatever possible scenerios one can think off and create trades - the reason being simple if you look at chart points you are bound to get in trouble -for exmple yesterday if SPA was at 917 on the opening much lower than 923 support and you decide to short at 917 expecting a test of 908 without looking at key stocks and SOX or other corrleations -you are bound to make a losing trade the only way for turning odds in your favor is a game plan- day trading becmoes impossible without a whole big picture right or wrong clear in your mind- one should know his levels know why a certain move is expected what impact global markets have on DOW and what affect bonds will have on this market- the way yield curve is behaving alongwith what the money of vandals is doing - now all these factors once are part of your game plan gives you a slight edge over an ordinary unit trust manager who is stuck with few chart points and know what every one knows on the street- I have several time referred to running of the stops and I think this goes on unabatedly day in day out for me it is always a test of low means a double test within an hour- first break is a false break and you need to be careful let them run the stops and if you see a second break of your lows since stops have already been run the oods are that you may have better chance not to be whipsawed- Confidence crisis is a complicated issue- we already have a very high level of pessimism and we have prctically written off ASEAN growth below 5% level on average I think we need not write off countries like corporation -National accounts are not company accounts and as you know countries are not companies but that is how we are dealing with national income and trying to reduce possibiltiy frontiers to suit what we in short term think isright- it is the herd mentality which leads to confidence crisis which in my opinion is a mechanism which works fine with markets- high degree of pessimism and optimism is fod for a rally and a correction we know it all but will still be a seller when bull/bear ratio as at all time low of .92- that what it was yesterday- greed and fear are two important elemnts without which we may have a one sided moves- so all this complication is what this market is so interesting and challenging. We need to tread these paths carefully and keep making some better than average trades in our favor. Hope we see our strategies come true- Innovative prediction and new grounds should be the name of the game and that what I think our contributions should be all about,.Thanks for your execellent thought provoking posts.