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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (589)	1/8/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Jyoti sharma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Peter, I have watched the CE funds for some time. Premiums reflect lack of selling pressure. Most people who buy CE Country funds do not pay attention to performance or premiums and discounts. Early last year I bot TC selling at 10 with a discount. When Thailand market crashed it went 8 and to a premium. On news it jumped to 12 for a day giving me a chance to get out with a small profit. Shorting CE funds is can be profitable only if you are sure of a major decline in a county's market. Right now most Asian markets have already crashed and county funds of Asia even though at a premium will jump on slight chance of good news. If you want to short look at Tempeton Russia fund. TRF is vulnerable if Russian market nose dives. Good luck with your shorts. Jyoti

To: peter michaelson who wrote (589)	1/8/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Polartee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Must be the very irrationale investor. I'm short on some of these funds myself. I can't understand why anyone would buy into the Korea Fund at a 50%+ premium to NAV when the open end Mattews Korea Fund can be bought at zero premium. BTW...see the Thailand thread in Overvalued Stocks group for discussion on shorting KF, TTF and other Asian closed ends. Have you tried asking the fund companies about the premium? It may be hard to speak to a manager but if you do, ask why they don't issue more shares in a secondary offering (or start a new fund either closed end or open) since the premium implies high demand and they'd be able to earn more management fees. You're better off posing as a potential investor who would buy if the premium were zero or less. If you say you're a short seller they might not wnat to talk to you. My work days are too hectic to call.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (589)	1/9/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Check out Tom Yarnall's Thailand site on SI for more discussion of the absurd pricing of US Thai Funds. One theory for the huge premiums is that many retail investors are buying now as they see the markets are bombed out and don't want to miss the bottom. These guys don't mind paying a premium to get in on the ground floor. For me they have always looked like the best short ideas in the world. The markets fall, the currencies fall and hopefully the premiums fall (one day).