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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elmatador who wrote (135548)9/14/2017 11:55:21 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217576
 
ah ... wonderful

re <<get ready for a weak USD>>

did not read your post, given no urgent need, as china tees up the possibility of the first 19 trillion to print

presumably to be followed by another 250 trillion to print per land reform

so ... get ready for a weak rmb

shall give the word "unfathomable" new meaning

bloomberg.com

China Sees $19 Trillion in State Assets Defusing Debt Bomb

State researchers' report comes ahead of October's party congress
September 15, 2017, 8:30 AM GMT+8
China's state researchers say government debt isn't as risky as it might look.

Scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank in Beijing, analyzed several years worth of government balance sheets and concluded that the state's massive assets can offset the debt threat.

CASS calculates in a new report that government assets stood at about 125.4 trillion yuan ($19 trillion) in 2015, or about 1.8 times GDP. Holdings include fixed assets such as buildings and cars, resources like land and oilfields, and cold hard cash in government deposits, the social security fund, and financial institutions.



Still, those aren’t easily liquidated in a crisis, and the researchers also warn of hidden dangers. They cite so-called implicit debt, or obligations that have an implicit state guarantee. That includes bond issuance by quasi-governmental organizations like policy banks, state railway debt, contingent local government liabilities, non-performing loans by state-owned financial institutions, hidden foreign debt, and a potential shortfall in the country’s pension fund.

"China's government sits on many resources available for use, and has great resilience and flexibility to fend off risks," researchers wrote. They estimate that the ratio of government net assets to gross domestic product is greater than 80 percent, offering a generous cushion against financial instability.



Such affirmation is nicely timed, coming just before next month's 19th Party Congress, a twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, and after months of pledges from President Xi Jinping and his top deputies that they're doing just about everything to control financial risk.

“We’ve applied fact-based and prudent principles here, which overstated liabilities while understating assets,” said Tang Linmin, co-author of the paper. “We haven’t included the value of a lot of China’s public-owned infrastructure as there are no statistics,” he said, adding that a significant share of natural resources also were omitted from the tally of government assets.

— With assistance by Miao Han, and Yinan Zhao





To: elmatador who wrote (135548)9/15/2017 12:08:00 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
John Pitera

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217576
 
why europe's young are choosing brazil

or something like that :0)

or something about ghost cities and such same

or debt

whatever

all good

edition.cnn.com

Europe's young architects choose life in China | CNN Style

Written by Oscar Holland, CNNBeijing, China

On her first day as an architect in China, Alina Valcarce started designing a 1.7-million-square-foot development in a city she had never heard of. Her vision for a three-tower complex in Jinhua, about 300 kilometers outside Shanghai, was chosen as the winning proposal soon afterwards. She was just 24 years old.

"I'd just arrived at the office, and they said, 'you need to lead this project,'" the Cuban-born Spanish architect recalled. "It was crazy. I was developing maybe 20 projects a year. Mixed-use buildings, malls with hotel towers, office buildings -- huge developments."


Jinhua Taigu Craft Plaza, Zhejiang, China. Credit: Courtesy of SURE Architecture

Valcarce believes that the majority of people in her graduating class have failed to find work in the architecture profession. She said that those who could secure jobs in Europe now work on projects she deems to be less interesting or challenging -- "restoration and more basic buildings."

In 2011, the year that Valcarce moved to China, Europe was in the depths of an economic recession. Young architects in the worst-hit countries -- including Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Greece -- faced fewer job opportunities and lower wages. In Spain, where Valcarce had previously worked, the property bubble had burst and the construction market had almost halved in just three years.
Yet, in those same three years, China's construction industry grew by approximately 90%, according to government figures. The post-Olympics building boom was in full swing, and foreign architects were in high demand. Although bigger firms -- and "starchitects" like Zaha Hadid and Rem Koolhaas -- had been cashing in throughout the 2000s, the European recession prompted a new generation of graduates to try their luck in China.
"I was one of the first ones here after the market in Spain started to go bad," Valcarce said. "After that, there was a wave of European architects coming to China. (Developers) were looking for foreigners to work on their projects -- they wanted a type of special design that they didn't think they could get from local architects."


Valcarce has received a number of unexpected client requests during her time as an architect in China. While at SURE Architecture, she says that the firm was asked to design this art gallery in the shape of a water droplet. Credit: Courtesy of SURE Architecture

These "special" designs were often modernist displays of glass and steel. Clients' requests also veered into the type of "weird" architecture often associated with modern China, and Valcarce recalls being asked to design an art gallery in the shape of a water droplet. But business was booming.
"Our office started as four people, and we became 20 very quickly," Valcarce said of the first firm she worked for in China, SURE Architecture. "We were completely overloaded."

Creative freedom

For Valcarce, now 31, the gamble has paid off. Currently the principal of Australian firm GroupGSA's Beijing office, she has worked on bigger and more ambitious projects than she believes would have been possible in Europe. This includes, most recently, a ski slope-inspired exhibition center being built in Zhangjiakou, co-host of the 2022 Winter Olympics.

There are creative advantages, too, according to 37-year-old Nicola Saladino. Having arrived in Beijing from London ("I was sending out CVs pretty much the week after Lehman Brothers crashed"), the Italian found that his profession enjoyed greater freedom in China.

"People were doing the type of architecture that would have been difficult anywhere else in the world," he said. "Not because it was more expensive, but because it was really daring. Offices from all over the world were coming to China because they spotted the opportunity to do things that they couldn't in their home countries."


Exhibition center design in Chongli, Zhangjiakou, China. Credit: Courtesy of GroupGSA

Sensing this potential, Saladino co-founded his own firm reMIX studio, which is based in a renovated courtyard a kilometer south of Tiananmen Square. As well as designing new structures -- from a 750,000-square-foot school to a geometric circus building in Liaoning province -- his firm also works on urban planning and regeneration projects.
While deep-pocketed developers certainly offer freedom of sorts ("you have clients who don't care about the budget"), Saladino also points to China's lenient planning regulations and openness to new ideas.

"You can have an impact," he said. "In China, we can completely rethink our models of how cities work.



Architect Nicola Saladino at work.

"If you are limited by preserving historical heritage, you're limited in the changes you can make. But if you're planning a completely new city in rural China, you can really challenge the traditional models and come up with something completely new.

"And people usually don't ask for permission to enlarge or rebuild their houses -- they just do it," Saladino said.

Yet all of the architects interviewed for this article express similar frustrations about working in China. Most common among the complaints are the poor quality of buildings and developers' habit of canceling projects after the design stage.

"When you go to very cool buildings and start looking at the construction quality, you see that it can be very low," said Valcarce, whose aforementioned winning design in Jinhua never became a reality.

"A lot of projects end up not getting built," Saladino added, saying that developers are prone to changing their minds. "Or they end up being built by someone else with a slightly different design."

Returning prospects

Should they choose to return home, China's European architects can expect to find an increasingly buoyant job market, according to the secretary general of the Architects' Council of Europe (ACE), Ian Pritchard.

The ACE's most recent study of the profession reports that the continent's architecture sector grew by 12% between 2014 and 2016. And while the market is still below pre-recession levels, the ACE's survey of almost 30,000 architects found that in every country, the majority expected their workloads to increase in 2017 (aside from post-Brexit UK and Italy, where the number of architects per 1,000 people is more than 2.5 times higher than the European average).

"I've heard that in Ireland, for example, once the market started to boom again, firms found their hands full at home," Pritchard said. "People have looked overseas to cope with the peaks and troughs of the (domestic) markets ... but not everyone sees themselves as a permanent émigré."

Thirty-year-old Architect Anna Pipilis has recently returned to her native Greece after more than three years in China. Although yet to explore the European job market, Pipilis believes that her experience -- which includes working on a large residential project in Anhui province with the world-renowned Chinese architecture firm, MAD -- puts her in a stronger position than her contemporaries.

"The pace in China is crazily fast, so, in terms of putting a portfolio together, I've done a lot," she said on the phone from Athens. "What's most important is that I've been through the different phases of a project -- from concept design to construction -- and that's what makes you more experienced.

"If I stayed in Europe, perhaps I'd have more experience in one (area of architecture), but not all of them," she said.

End of the gold rush

But European recovery is not the only factor bringing architects back to Europe. China's construction market is also cooling. Amid reports of international design firms cutting staff and salaries at their Chinese offices, some believe that the golden era for overseas architects is coming to an end.

"In 2015, a lot of foreigners decided to go," Valcarce said. "When I arrived here, I knew 50 or 60 European architects. Right now I can count on one hand who's left. Everyone's gone."

In addition to economic factors, cultural shifts are also changing the Chinese market, according to Saladino. With President Xi Jinping calling for an end to "xenocentric" buildings, Western architects' allure may be wearing off.

"When I arrived, clients would demand foreigners in any big project," he said. "I've been asked by friends to attend meetings just to 'show my face.' But now, more and more Chinese students are studying architecture abroad and then coming back home. They don't have that same reverence toward Westerners.

"We're also seeing the reintroduction of a more conservative, historical architectural style as a reaction to the modern excesses made 10 years ago."

Some of China's foreign architects are now established enough to weather the storm. With her career going "amazingly," Valcarce hopes to remain in Beijing for the foreseeable future. Saladino also plans to stay, having started a family in China.

But the Italian also wants to expand his business in Europe. The prospect of China-based firms opening in the West -- effectively reversing the traditional flow of talent -- is an idea raised by Pipilis in Greece too.

"My studio in China (Studio O) always wanted to open something in Europe when the time was right," she said. "There could be this super-interesting interdisciplinary and intercultural approach that comes from Europe, goes to China and is then brought back to Europe -- it's an ongoing link.

"Or it could get lost in translation."



To: elmatador who wrote (135548)9/15/2017 10:02:28 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217576
 
elmo
listen to TJ.. you will learn


Dry Bulk Shipping Companies Back In Black
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 15/09/2017

A long slump for dry-bulk shipping companies, which transport the raw materials of global trade, may be coming to an end.
After two years of below break-even freight rates that pushed the world’s biggest ship operators deep into losses and smaller ones out of business, strong growth in the global economy has shipowners rejoicing.
The Baltic Dry Index, one of the world’s leading trade indicators which measures the cost of moving commodities such as coal and iron ore, is hovering at 1355 points, the highest in 34 months after falling to its lowest level at 292 in February last year. At its peak, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the index hit 11,000 points.
Shipping brokers say the rise will likely continue in the short term, with 1700 points being the initial resistance level.
“Things are looking better all around,” said Robert Bugbee, president of Scorpio Bulkers, one of the world’s biggest carriers. “There is strong growth in the world economy and this translates to more shipments of everything from cement and grains to aluminium, coal and iron ore.”

Scorpio, which has 48 ships, sold about 20 of its biggest vessels at a sharp discount in late 2015 to maintain financial viability after charter rates tanked to less than half of break-even levels.
The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow by 3.5 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, up from 3.2 per cent in 2016.
The current market surge is mainly driven by China’s move to limit this year’s production of coal and iron ore in 10 provinces by about 25 per cent and 20 per cent compared to last year, ¬according to data by Athens-based Allied Shipbroking.
The move aims to cut pollution in major urban centres, but comes amid an increase in infrastructure investment from Beijing, which means greater reliance on seaborne imports.
“China’s economy is turning around with a resurgence in infrastructure spending, at a time when its steel inventories are low,” said Basil Karatzas, chief executive of New York-based Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. “The dollar (in which commodities are priced) is also at an 18-month low which makes it a good time to buy.”

Brokers in Singapore and London said they had seen increased demand for commodities such as grains, lumber, cement, coal and copper. One broker, who arranges charters for big operators in Asia and Europe, said rates were improving across the board.
Dry-bulk shippers were hurt over the past few years after China, the world’s biggest commodities importer, began shifting away from heavy industry as the main growth driver. Like Scorpio, other big players shrank fleets in the face of losses while some smaller operators went bankrupt. Banks turned off access to ship-¬financing in the face of rising non-performing loans.
Source: Wall Street Journal



To: elmatador who wrote (135548)9/15/2017 10:12:00 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Respond to of 217576
 
elmo

this is not your version or vision ..... take off the blindfold
==================================

Bulk shipping rates soaring
in Dry Bulk Market 15/09/2017

Bulk shipping charges are at unusually high levels for this time of year. Prices for large vessels carrying commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains usually fall during the summer because of fewer shipping contracts. This year, however, they have rebounded sharply from an early-July low and remain strong ahead of the fall, when demand usually recovers. The major driver behind the rally is China’s growing crude steel production and higher steel prices.
On Sept. 8, the average charge for a capesize cargo ship that can carry some 170,000 tons of iron ore exceeded $20,000 per day, a level not seen since late March. Compared to a low in early July, it is up more than three times. Thanks to an increase of goods coming into China from Brazil and Australia, the sense of oversupply in the bulk shipping market has eased.
China is producing crude steel at a record pace. Infrastructure investment has been strong ahead of a key Communist Party congress in October. Demand for steel for construction use is not showing any sign of abating. Demand also increased thanks to a government crackdown on low-quality steel. The illegal steel — made by simply melting and molding iron scrap — is said to have been used widely across China. The government cracked down on producers of the illegal steel. Legitimate steelmakers then increased production to make up for the lost supply, also pushing up demand for iron ore significantly.
Tighter environmental regulations by the Chinese government have also increased steel imports. Steelmakers import and use high-grade iron ore that contains large amounts of iron in order to increase production efficiency and to reduce air pollutants. “Imported iron ore is sold to steelmakers right away without being stocked,” said one carrier broker.
Led by the rise in steel prices, the price of iron ore has been at high levels. Shipping companies are feeling less pressure to lower rates from commodity giants paying the freight charges for their exports. As a result, rates on Chinese routes from Brazil and Australia have gone up about 60-80% since early July.
Yet tighter environmental regulations can cause rates to fall back again. Major production bases in China, such as Hebei Province, have already decided to drastically cut production this winter as a measure to improve China’s ever-deteriorating air quality. If production is cut, steel prices will likely rise further but demand for iron ore will fall. “The Chinese government is sensitive to changes in the market and it will probably increase [steel] production by relaxing rules if steel prices rise rapidly,” said another shipping carrier broker. Many brokers share the same view but there is no guarantee that the current upbeat market will continue.
The bulk shipping market is generally prone to big swings in prices. The recent increase in steel production and iron ore imports is also partly due to a last-minute surge in demand ahead of the announced output cut. How high the market will go probably depends on what the Chinese government wants.
Source: Nikkei