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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (4993)	9/23/2017 12:43:07 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Respond to of 26435

I should add GE to that mix of companies I didn't own back in 2000.... Bob Brinker on his radio show convinced my parents and millions of others it was "like a mutual fund" so you could have as much as 20% of your portfolio in the single stock. I got paid money as an analyst to show it was over valued relative to the S&P500 by a factor of two so the firm got people to take profits and buy value stocks which worked well. I got my parents to take SOME profits but they were upset when GE crashed and Brinker waffled on his advice and just started to say it was like all stocks and should only be 4% of your portfolio. Sort of reminds me of Cramer these days..... The indexes could get crushed or lag seriously if the top few have issues while the smaller tech stocks with dividends and growth I like but are not all in favor yet become new leaders.... GARP Growth At at Reasonable Price could be the next big thing. I got a letter from my largest managed fund, FLPSX, that they are changing the charter to let them pay more than $35 a share for stock as long as the earnings yield, 1/PE, is higher than the average Russell 2000 stock. That will mean more fund flows into GARP!

To: Kirk © who wrote (4993)	9/24/2017 9:18:46 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 26435

Hi Kirk, Looks to me like IWM is near a break out: IWM monthly: screencast.com IWM daily: screencast.com Marginal new high on friday.

To: Kirk © who wrote (4993)	9/30/2017 10:44:40 AM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation Recommended By Fintas Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26435

<<Will international stocks and/or Russell 2000 stocks be the value stocks of the early 2000s?>> I have been loaded up on International and Global Mutual Funds and ETFs this year. The gains have been very good, in some instances, doubling the performance of the S&P 500. Here are some of the Mutual Funds and ETFs I've been positioned in: VWIGX, EVGIX (EVGBX is a cheaper alternative for some), SCZ, GVAL, FSIMX, OAKGX, VEU, IXN, The gains have been tremendously aided by the decline in the Dollar Index and especially in the rise of the Euro. I would not underestimate the currency impact. There has been many a day where the overseas markets have been flat to down and yet the International Funds and Etfs have been up. I had 85% of my portfolio international/global. I know that goes against every principle of diversification; but I knew these markets were much cheaper than the US and the Trump administration wanted a lower USD for trade purposes. I took some off the table on Friday and redeployed that money toward US midcap/smallcap special situations. Actually, I sold my big positions in VEU and GVALon Friday. My portfolio took a pretty big hit on Monday/Tuesday due to the rise in the USD, but miraculously recovered by the end of the week to post nice gains. But the scare or reality check on Monday and Tuesday was enough to lighten up a bit. There are some funds (EVGIX/EVGBX) that hedge currency risk and do quite well. I am still bullish on Internationala/Global (not so much emerging markets anymore), but I see a short term top and (possibly intermediate term top) in the USD at 120. VWIGX is actively managed and has wild price swings. OAKGX is very steady and captures the best of domestic and international. IXN is one of the best performing global tech ETFs this year. Trading volume is light, though. FSIMX and SCZ have been powerful small cap/midcap performers, capitalizing on Japan, Great Britain and Germany. As for the US markets, if sentiment can remain subdued among individual investors (AAII) , I think markets move considerably higher. SPX 3000 is doable next year.