To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (15852 ) 1/9/1998 2:57:00 AM From: TechnoWiz Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27012
Sonny: Re: The Superbowl indicator. I certainly respect and pay great attention to all these things and in reality I try to factor them into my investment thinking, but why fret about this ahead of time, lets wait until the game is played. I am a contrarian by nature and the dominant theme I am hearing going into 1998 is that the market cannot possibly go up another 20% this year. Well a stronger force may be at work that is bigger than us all. The market was very strong going into 1900, (up four years in a row and the last year was the strongest), so I would rather beg the question is the market trying to tell us something going up three years in a row by more than 20%, maybe we could end up with something greater like a blow off. After all a lot of people tried to short Dell on the way up as it defied gravity, the same could be said for this market. Essentially the market has been in a correction now since August. Interestingly, Intel has shown surprising strength in recent days: It's 5 day January indicator is "positive" by the way and since Intel is the one of the major economic engines of the 21st Century, I believe it is an very important bellweather for the overall market. Ever since Intel topped out on August 7, the market has been out of step, so with signs of strength evident in Intel, could this be signalling a turn? I am certainly extremely alert to that possbility. The big question is: Will this be a 5 month correction or a 9 month correction or a combination of both punctuated by a strong rally in between? I believe the next few weeks will provide at least some of these answers. I would also not lose sight of the fact that the Transportation index has been particularly strong and is close to a new record. New all time highs this month would auger very well, at least for the Blue Chips. Among a number of issues that were hit had in December, the quality of their recent bounces has been encouraging. More tomorrow Good Nigth to all rgds Wiz