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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (6765)	1/9/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

. . .I still see $100/shr in AOL's future. *** I agree, this split is one of the things I've been waiting to get out of the way before I jump in on the short side. . . Once all this hype settles down and we get a look at this quarter, which I'm betting will be fairly disappointing (I'm predicting another poor showing on the advertising revenue side with an increase in the churn rate and a possible slowing of subscriber growth together with maybe $.15 cents in earnings), we should be looking straight down the cliff--next stop $15/share. Of course, I may be under-estimating the intelligence of the average AOL bull, so it may take another quarter of disappointing ad revenues and more clear signs that not all net newbies are idiots and will willing sit through the abuse that AOL gives them every time they want to check their e-mail. . . All in all, I think we've got a good chance of a nice drop after earnings come out, but it wouldn't surprice me if AOL manages to hold on until next quarter before things really hit the fan. . .