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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the traveler who wrote (5192)	11/11/2017 10:00:15 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By the traveler Respond to of 26837

Hi traveler, These last several years I've been trying to build a dividend portfolio for my long term retirement. I've had two crash and burns: KMI and TIS. Both paid big dividends and when a cut or a suspension happens - you don't want to have that experience. Retirees like me buy a stock for the dividend - when it gets cut or even not improved - they sell in masses first and think later. It kills the stock"s price for several years! If you have an inkling GE will cut its dividend as part of a turn around story - I'd kill that GTC. If they announce a suspension or reduction - your opportunity to buy GE will come immediately. Actually if that happens I'd let the decline take its fullest in time and sell some far out puts at say 12.50 or even 10. It'll make you way more money than the reduced dividend and you can keep your money. That's my plan for GE. Let's face it Immelt was playing global politics more than he was making GE lean and mean. Time for a turnaround is here - the board gave Immelt the boot - that was a good start for a troubled blue chip. Smacks more of a GM kind a thing to me. GM went BK and Wagonner got the boot! Bob

To: the traveler who wrote (5192)	11/11/2017 10:57:22 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26837

My thought for GE Friday was $19.50 may have whiffed and $19.75 would have been better. I haven't heard ANYONE mention that GE said free cash flow is at a low of about $7B now and is expected to recover. They could easily announce they keep the dividend or cut it just a little until the cash flow recovers and the stock would look like a rocket and we'd all be upset we whiffed at snagging a few shares under $20. If I was at GE and could see a path to recover cash flow, I'd consider putting treasury shares into the pension fund so any recovery would help that deficit. It really reminds me of how "everyone" hated MSFT and PFE when I was adding just before they exploded to the upside to the new highs they are at now. There was also similar fear for IBM back in 1994 when I doubled down my holdings at $11/share.... Of course, it could be another Worldcom or Enron and keep going down, but I just don't see it as they make real products people want. Finally, the price of oil has really surged... that could make some of their poorly timed energy buys look and perform better. Looks like I need to update the dividend and BE for the latest dividend.