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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (2098)	1/9/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

Here's the passage in the press release, which is not entirely clear: "The Auto PC platform is expandable and upgradeable. This version allows a variety of third-party add-ons and solutions such as enhanced navigation applications, wireless data applications, cellular phone integration, vehicle diagnostic applications and many others." I am also curious as to what the base price of this product is versus a fully loaded product, and what the "enhanced" applications may be. I noticed in my research one cute possibility -- a transfer of address information between a handheld PC via infrared port (I assume this is like a TV remote) to the onboard "Auto PC," which then could give the driver verbal, step by step instructions to the address. Pretty neat for rich people. Also, I believe that Visteon, one of the partners, is a Ford Motor entity, so we may be seeing Ford sign up as well as VW, etc. Some poster on Yahoo was dismissing the car navigation market as "low margin," which borders on idiocy considering (a) it's not especially low margin and (b) it is potentially enormous. I am very encouraged by this alliance, but realize that major profits from it are about two or three years away. Trimble IR has indicated that it has 30% of GPS engine market, which is itself about 30% of the overall market, and that the overall market should be about $3 billion in year 2000. By my math, if TRMB holds market share (and it could increase the way they're going), that's $300 million in revenues, or so, in year 2000, from car navigation alone. I wouldn't be surprised if TRMB were pulling in over $700 million in revenues that year.

To: Petz who wrote (2098)	1/16/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3506

More on AutoPC and US car nav market, courtesy of Global Positioning & Navigation News . . . . In AutoPC, "The Trimble GPS receiver, which is a $250 option, can be coupled with a cellular phone interface to enable roadside emergency services that include 911 position locating. AutoPC has a motion and impact detector that can inform authorities, with GPS, where a vehicle has crashed." This answers our speculations on the GPS option issue in AutoPC. It is independent of car navigation info. The President of Clarion was quoted as saying that "Our research has indicated that no one is going to buy a navigation unit only [in the U.S. market]. The AutoPC, with Windows CE capability, has many other technologies -- customers will buy it." (I heard the same thing about car nav only from my brother for free, without paying for public opinion polling.) Clarion, which passed on a GPS-based car navigation only unit (I wonder which GPS company offered it), had the following prediction for a car nav only market in the US. 1996: 15,000 units -- $30 million; 1997: 19,500 units -- $40 million; 1998 29,200 units -- $62 million; 1999: 43,000 units -- $90 million; and, 2000: 63,000 units -- $123 million. [Note: I don't see any price drop in these predictions.] By contrast, Japan had 750,000 car nav units sold in 1996; Clarion sold a lot of them. Sony had a low cost model available, and Japan is digitally mapped, as well as gadget crazy. But according to an Etak VP, even in Japan sales did not take off until GPS was widely available. Car navigation also worked in Japan because of its safety value, especially with women drivers. According to the Etak VP, "It is real hard to get into the U.S. aftermarket because people are unwilling to tear up their dash. This market will be driven by original equipment manufacturer sales -- it will take a lot longer to develop." In other words, the industry has concluded that the AutoPC/Connected Car PC, with safety options, is the best entry into a US mass market. Also: Pioneer will be introducing a DVD unit with entertainment center and CD player, along with a navigation option (using TRMB boards). Magellan will start selling an aftermarket satellite guidance product to Avis in Florida in late March. Cost to be $6 to $30 per day. Magellan's efforts in the car rental area have helped build demand that Trimble is filling with Wintel. Trimble's marketing director said that about a dozen companies beside Clarion would be selling Wintel PC/car nav into autos. A company named Roadtrac will be introduce in March an aftermarket product that combines GPS and cellular to allow worried parents to track where their kid is taking the car. It uses TRMB and Japan Radio Corp. GPS engines. Sales price will be $659. Finally, Honeywell's Pegasus avionics package has been picked up for use by a consortium of Swissair, Austria Air and Sabena in their Airbus 330 fleets. Delivery in August. Is TRMB part of this. That's all.