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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (1100)	1/10/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Robert G. Harrell	Respond to of 2542

Paul, I was a few minutes late for a doctor's appointment yesterday because I wanted to hear Joe Kernen's report on CNBC about the Adams-Harkness report and why it was killing Hadco, Jabil, etc. As I heard it, they apparently were assuming that the big companies that were being sold off did not have any production facilities in Asia and would thus be hurt by cheap Asian exports to this country. If I've learned anything from reading this thread since discovering it, it is that the above argument is false. You guys have hashed that out at length here. I guess until someone gets the actual Adams-Harkness report we won't know if Joe's interpretation was correct. <<OFF TOPIC>> If any of you want to diversify your pain, you might want to check out the SI thread on Oil drillers and service companies. I wasn't content to buy into one set of falling knives, so, in my stock picking brilliance, I bought a basket of oil drilling and service companies in late November after a big sell off. I'm having a Doublemint jingle experience. "Double your sector, double your pain..." (You know the tune.) Anyway, while trying to reinforce my stubborn conviction that the market is as wrong about the oil service stocks as it is about the ECM stocks, (it is isn't it?) I checked for a thread on SI about the oil stocks and found this great thread with a guy who is sort of analagous to Creditman, a real industry insider, who is pounding the table that the oil drillers and service companies are doing great and will continue to do great for at least a couple more years. His name is Mike Simmons. Message 3084054 (his credentials) Reading his posts and surrounding posts has convinced me that I may not have made a mistake after all. Just thought I'd share this in case any of you aren't totally tapped out and might want a good sector for diversifying your investments. At least my son's basketball team isn't getting killed and will play for the county championship today. To further balance the pain, yesterday he brought home his first college recruiting letter (from the University of Georgia). Actually, it was a "recruiting questionaire" since they are not allowed to recruit freshmen. It just happened to be accompanied by the usual hype about what a great program U. Ga has and how he was a top prospect yada, yada, yada...but they weren't recruiting him yet because they aren't allowed to by NCAA rules. Now if only Stanford would start "not" recruiting him. Hope everyone can forget yesterday's market and enjoy the weekend. Bob

To: kolo55 who wrote (1100)	1/12/1998 7:13:00 AM
From: Asymmetric	Respond to of 2542

Paul, I don't see the selloff as being done. Agreed there is a lot of "blood in the streets" and many outstanding bargains...however it will be hard to shake the downtrend. If this continues maybe we should change the title of the thread to "ECMs - Buy When There's Blood In the Streets!" to match some of the others I've seen. I think going forward it will be important to try to keep a sense of humor both on this thread and personally, as we are all going to be severely tested in the coming months ahead. Regards, Peter.

To: kolo55 who wrote (1100)	1/12/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: dandy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

Paul, Please don't stop preaching to the choir. This new member of the choir finds your thoughtful discussions very interesting, useful and educational! Dandy

To: kolo55 who wrote (1100)	1/12/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Rob Preuss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

ECM EARNINGS WATCH I put together the following table based upon the sources listed below. {Can anyone add a column to indicate the type of ECM company each is? Thus, you might use a [1] to indicate a PCB maker, or a [2] to indicate a box assembler, etc. Also, feel free to extend/update/correct this table. Thanks!} CAUTION! These info sources are not always correct! Report Dates: pathfinder.com Earnings: ultra.zacks.com TICKER QUARTER REPORT ACTUAL EPS ESTIMATE SYMBOL ENDING DATE EPS OR SURPRISE slr 11/97 12/16/97 0.38 -05% jbil 11/97 12/17/97 0.49 +02% fsii 11/97 12/23/97 0.08 -27% sanm 12/97 1/12/98 0.66 sci 12/97 1/19/98 0.59 pgtz 12/97 1/20/98 0.18 aflx 12/97 1/21/98 0.35 ntaif 12/97 1/22/98 0.31 iece 12/97 1/23/98 0.31 flexf 12/97 1/23/98 0.48 tsemf 12/97 1/27/98 0.22 diig 12/97 1/28/98 0.47 ddl 12/97 2/06/98 ???? sflx 12/97 2/09/98 0.02 dswlf 12/97 2/09/98 ???? actm 12/97 2/12/98 0.08 hdco 1/98 2/17/98 0.89 cmci 1/98 2/20/98 0.18 smod 1/98 2/20/98 0.34 elamf 12/97 2/23/98 0.20 sgma 1/98 3/10/98 ???? dssi 12/97 3/30/98 ????

To: kolo55 who wrote (1100)	1/13/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: 18acastra	Respond to of 2542

HADCO raised to Strong Buy this morning by Alex Brown. Reason for upgrade: Asian Flu thing overdone. Adams, Harkness estimate revisions overdone, no solid basis in fact. My opinion.