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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Luke who wrote (2709)	1/10/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

In the October 8 issue of Marketimer, BB set out his "five major bear market root causes" that he uses to evaluate the current status and staying power of the bull. Since I have reason to believe that this King is on very thin ice with The Man right now, I better not even think about repeating any of his intellectual property here, but suffice it to say that only one of the five bear market causes is readily apparent in current conditions. The King of France

To: Greg Luke who wrote (2709)	1/10/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Good analysys Greg. I can say I was sad to not see my issue of Marketimer in my mailbox yesterday to read Bob's summary of the situaution as I used to have it by the 8th. Allan says he only sees 1 of the 5 Brinker Bear signals. I'd like to add that a person that I like, Abby Joseph Cohen(sp), was on Wall$tret Week last night. She is about the most accurate market predictor they've had and she is usually fairly conservative like Bob and prefers to upgrade as her targets are approached. Anyway, she did a quick valuation analysis as Bob has taught us and came up with (very conservative) DOW 8700 for a multiple of 18. This included 8% vs 14% earnings growth of last yr. She was still very bullish as interest rates could drive the max multiple higer (>23) and thus the DOW much higher. She wouldn't say 9000, but it was clear that she felt it was within reason. Her earnings growth is double what Bob has so I'd rank her as more bullish right now than The Brink. My personal indictors, not scientific, but proprietary from working in the semiconductor field, remain strong. My educated guess is on Today's show Bob will advise of a possible buying opportunity, say it is good to cream the day traders and riverboat gamblers now and then, and possibly even raise his target. I look for strong hints that AMAT and UTEK and a few others have been clobbered to excess. I'm thinking of selling some positions that are only off 10% from peaks to get some semi cap equipment bargains that are 50% of more off recent highs. One last point that does not get alot of press. Mfg costs are LOWER now for many of the big high tech's who do assembly in Asia due to lower costs. The greater inflation there in the past yrs has been steadily erroding this advantage and it was taking tax concessions by the local governments to keep the big companies. Since labor is paid in local currency, the huge deflation has lowered the overhead of doing business in these countries and thus made it easier for the US companies to meet their cost targets. Michael Dell said as much on PBS a couple of weeks ago before HP followed by Compaq and Dell lowered their PC prices again. This is VERY BULLISH to me and makes me think we might see Bob increase his 4% earnings growth number though I'm not sure it will be to the 8% level of AJC. Should be an interesting weekend to be listening to the radio. 8) regards Kirk out suite101.com suite101.com BTW, does anyone have a good url for predicted S&P500 earnings?