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Pastimes : Don't Ask Rambi -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (6020)	1/10/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71178

Jack, I hope your not right. I'm 85% invested in stocks now. There is one other hopeful scenerio, however unlikely it may seem now with all this asian meltdown. Companies could actually make rediculous profits and have the valuations look cheap again. Especially if GDP continues to increase 3% or greater. I have to admit though, that's not a likely scenerio since all the Asian countries are going to be dumping goods into the U.S. market. I'm predicting a relatively flat market over the next 9 months with vicious up's and downs. If inflation holds in check, which looks very likely, late 98-99 should be a good year for stocks. But Intel is cheap at these prices, and Merced is just around the corner. :-) Michael

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (6020)	1/10/1998 10:45:00 AM
From: Rambi	Respond to of 71178

Jack, There is no such a thing as an off-topic here. And I am very delighted to see you. Please, feel free to discuss this topic!~ As a matter of fact, I beg you to discuss this topic as I am very uncertain what to do with my stocks, most of which are already at a loss because they're odd things like biotechs taht need an FDA approval or something to move. What do you think of those? The thought of holding 16 years my GLM and HELE and finding myself down 80% is rather daunting! Also angst is not verboten by any means. We all have angsty days and I'd like to think that people could come here and find a glass of wine and a sympathetic ear. My problem is with anyone permanently afflicted with the attitude that life sucks and argues with those of us who believe it's a moveable feast. Mostly I hate nastiness of any kind. Hopefully I have convinced you to stay around and share stories and yourself with us a bit. We would all like that. penni

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (6020)	1/10/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: epicure	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71178

As Penni said there is no off topic here, and as we all own stocks, or are interested in them, this is a perfect subject. Did you see Wall Street Week last night? Abby Cohen was on. I thought she might be a bit bearish, as she tends to be conservative. She was not bearish. She sees values here. I don't see a rebound coming yet, most of the charts I look at look just awful. I have a program that tracks 152 stocks, and all but 4 or 5 look like sells. A big correction could be coming, or we could trade sideways as we did in 1994 until earnings catch up with valuation. For people who are really worried about long positions but would like to keep the stock I would advise that you do some research on shorting against the box. For instance you have 500 shares of intc, you want to keep it but you are sure it is going down. You would short 500 shares, then cover with market shares if the price drops. If it goes up, you are protected from a call because you can cover the short position with your own shares. You would only do this at a level where you would not be crushed to sell your stock. It is also a nice way to move gains from one year into another year. Nothing is realized untill you close your short.

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (6020)	1/10/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Gauguin	Respond to of 71178

Welcome welcome Jack. (Personally have so much angst right now, that when I think of an image of how much that might be, in two attempts a day-old hot cheese sandwich popped up.) It was outside, the second time, in the leaves under rhododendron lutescens (the "most yellow") rhody. [Forget CNBC, get yer new paradigms here.] I sort of wait for people who know some facts to come along and give their opinion/info and am grateful for it. ~ The market's history gets a lot of weight, yah. But we're only talking a century (heehee), right? ~ Matters not much to me, but this could be a new era. One of the rationalizations for spouse and me entering the mkt was an earlier sensation of...what...a change in history. Not easy to define and facts are not my forte. Do know that's it's hard or impossible to tell when one is on the approaching edge of a shift. Can't really be argued, either. Also, would never BET on it. ~ Making money at this, most truthfully looks harder and more worrisome than it did last year; and it wasn't sleep-walking then. So the people who don't want to bother are probly elsewhere-ing, as they should. ~ But are mutuals going to do well? Hmm. ~ Cash in the right periods is good. Very good. But over 30 yrs, it's not good enough. (Generally.) My cash is waiting for the right place to go back to work. Has to. And the mkt is truly one of the best/easiest formats. Others must think so too. There may be a massive correction or not; but these people are now of the training/psychology that they will get back in. Heck, it's a market. ~ Valuations: I like companies squished down, beaten up in alleys by mobs of meansters. I can't figure why people buy stocks at full value. There's still downside risk in both, but... It seems to me the steady climb up, say of Intel from 49, works well (very) under certain conditions, but jeez be careful now. Buying or holding stocks near their highs seems weird to me. ~ I don't know. Even writing these things seems strange. Wore my little head out thinking about it, I guess. Didn't take much. Opinions are appreciated tho. Perspectives, especially.

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (6020)	1/10/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Janice Shell	Respond to of 71178

But of course much depends on who's doing the valuations. If you're Abby Cohen, you still feel that '98 earnings will be good enough to ensure a forward P/E (for the S&P) of about 18, which isn't outrageous. Still no one's quite sure whether the economy's slowing or not; Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested "not" to some, but others pointed out that employment is a lagging indicator. And no one's sure, either, how great an effect the Asia mess will have on our own economy. But these uncertainties alone should be enough to make for a volatile market for months to come; one that I doubt will be seeing any new highs, though I don't think gloomy forecasts of a 30-40% correction will come to pass either, unless some major new Mess surfaces. (Well, there is always Y2K. The question of the creation of a European Central Bank and the subsequent switchover to the Euro, too...)