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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (10367)	1/10/1998 3:39:00 PM
From: Carolyn S.	Respond to of 79242

Doug and you other dead cat guys - I think you would really like this stuffed animal. I bought one years ago in San Francisco. In fact, I did not buy it when I first saw it, then I made Andy drive me all the way back to San Francisco from Los Gatos the next day so I could buy it. It's "Earl the Dead Cat" He's all flattened, and his tail's crooked, and his eyes are just X's. Apparently, he is still available for $17.95! Or, maybe not - I checked their order form and I only see the smaller stick-on-a-window version available :-( dhstv.com Note - the picture at the above site isn't very clear. Here's a better one - looks like these people want to see if he will bounce: teleport.com Carolyn S.

To: Doug R who wrote (10367)	1/10/1998 4:13:00 PM
From: Carolyn S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79242

Doug - I just wanted to tell you that thanks to TA I have learned from you, and also Jim, Myron, and the TA books I read, I did not buy back into any mutual funds a week ago, even though the NAZ was up 5 days in a row and some aggressive fund charts looked hot for the week. I spent last weekend finally adding some useful indicators (that I could now understand) into my TC2000 where I chart 50 funds. It made it pretty obvious that it would be extremely risky to buy almost anything. Downtrending EMA's all over the place. Thanks! Carolyn S.

To: Doug R who wrote (10367)	1/10/1998 4:16:00 PM
From: ivan solotaroff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79242

HMMMM... Doug: Not to nitpick or nothing, but, re: "During the first 3 days, exit is triggered by a close on the low. After 3 days, exit is triggered by volume." I agree that some form of staggering is needed if a valid exit point occurs before a third post-signal day, but if some hardworking SGI-holding cat-fancier had been following the rule on 11/26, he/she would have missed out on most of the run-up from the 11/24 signal. Unless I've missed something, I would and could not follow that rule. Ivan

To: Doug R who wrote (10367)	1/10/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: Esteban	Respond to of 79242

Doug, I'm glad you've found some validity to Ivan's reversal signal. I'll check it out also. I must say this volume signal as a top surprises me. Exhaustion top? I was thinking of looking for declining volume after a good runup. I agree that a close on the low is a bad indication during the incubation phase. Actually, it's a bad indication period, especially if it's a long candlestick. If it's a long candlestick though, we would have some intraday trendlines to work with and possibly some previous intraday lows to lend horizontal support. Here's a question. If a volume signal day occurs after the initial 3 day period, is that an automatic exit or do you still want to filter it by the accelerated trend line. Another point: It seems quite likely that the trend could reverse without the volume signal. So in the absence of the volume signal, what gets you out? Do you have a list of PGDCEBs from days gone by for study? Esteban

To: Doug R who wrote (10367)	1/10/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: Esteban	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79242

Doug and Ivan, I've only looked at at few symbols but there are some interesting things to discuss already. I really don't have that many examples to look at. SGI: This 11/24 signal's slow incubation is a tough one. I think the current intraday trend and horizontal support combo would have worked well here. The problem with the volume signal is 12/4, too early. Of course this is a strong white candle day, so the idea of filtering this volume signal is reinforced here. Notice how the volume starts to decline after this. Two successive days of declining volume after a nice runup looks promising. Especially when used in combo with the high volume signal. Look for one or the other. On the 12/15 signal volume declines after the runup also, but not in as predictable a pattern. BTW, Ivan, if you had gone for entry on the signal day you could have gotten entry at 11 13/16 10 minutes before the close. Our currrent exit methods would have gotten you out at 12 9/16 to 12 3/4. Certainly not a failure. OXHP: Ivan's volume signal works great here. The declining volume method is a day early, but then again on a strong day. I still like the filter idea. TSEMF:There's an 11/12 signal within the waiting period. Still your volume exit is perfect. The next day would be an even better exit, and it's on lower volume than the climax day and it is a weak though still higher day. For the 12/15 signal, the declining volume method gets you out at the top of the first wave. Ivan this 12/15 PGDCEB signal is very successful and at the same time looks like one of your falling knives. Just noticed that the ESOL signal was similar. I saw it mentioned in one of your posts. Certainly no price flattening pattern. HICA, LIPO confirm. A high volume day as you describe Doug looks very good, especially if followed by a low volume day. Confirm with the steepest valid trend line break or weak candlestick. My first impression of the reversals is that they are harder to pinpoint than the PGDCEB signal, and that they are not always as quick to get on down as I would like. I like the potential though. I wonder if I'm getting a skewed impression of the reversal prospects because the current market might be keeping the noose tighter than normal for these. Back to the charts. Esteban