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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13040)	1/11/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; I for sure know there is an easier way to do what I'm doing..has to be. But in doing it I discover things that still confuse me, looking at them I may stumble onto something others have not looked at. Guess I'm hunting for more than just the tail and the dog, but don't know what it is, just hoping I'll recognize it when I find it. What is this A/D that you compare to the DJ-30 ? the A/D part lost me. ------------------- Something I found I don't know what to make of yet is that the total market cap..does not add up to what the total average market cap would be at the average price per share.. ( like the average price per share = $66.33 at close friday, ( that times the total shares out gives a market total cap larger by 28B than the real total market cap.) ( IT's like a GAP ) Not a big thing when you see the that the real cap is 1.867T, yet it indicates that some stocks ( per dollar have captured more percentage wise of the real market cap, while others may have much l but that the average value per share on a whole exceeds the real val exactly what this means I haven't figured out. IT's like looking at a very badly tangled up fishing net and trying figure out how to get all the twists and loops out of it, short of cutting it up. <grin> --------------------------- To get a handle on this I think I will need to back test it before this latest drop and see if that gap was more or less than it is now, and where it was. Is this making any sense at all ? Like some stocks are gaped above the mean average, while others below it, but producing a net effect of small "gap up" still in place. MY gut feeling is saying to me that the gap is the result of expectations that still exceed reality, indicating a little over bought situation is still in place, And that when that gap gets going the other way, it will say over sold is the condition, BUT I don't trust this GUT feeling. -------------------- And coming up with a formula in 123 to show me where and how this average market cap value exceeds the real is still eluding me. Till I do that I won't put any real faith in it. Damm I've gotten into a tangled up web of things, and maybe over complicated it beyond what would be useful. ---------- Any way what is this A/D you mentioned ? I'm tempted to discard most of this mixed up crap I see inside the DOW, it's just to much work for so many questionable results. YET I hate finding a discrepancy and not know how it gets there. Jim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13040)	1/11/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill; an after thought; It dawned on me that by A/D you may mean the moving average, compared to the DOW. But if so that's not the tail I'm trying to see. It's got to much blended into it. But if I just used the moving average of the top 10 caps, compared to the moving average of the DOW That would show me better the tail I'm looking for, or better yet maybe the moving average of the top ten against the M/A of the bottom 20. ( cap wise ) the bottom 20 being the tail. ? With sectors it would be the same, the big caps set the trend, it don't become noticeable with TA until it's well underway. Regular TA on an index just don't add up to me, it has the tail built into it and also the M/A. I want to separate out that, and believe if I can, that I get in front of the curve that regular TA will eventually show, but often to late. ( this on the observation over and over that the MEGA caps are in charge of trend, ) Pulling the MEGA caps out of the soup back in July, August, Sept. clearly shows that something was wrong inside the index, that Price, M/A or any TA of the group didn't show at all. AS the Price and M/A was propped up by gains in thinly traded issues who were still into the bull run, while at the time the Mega Caps were trending down in a sneaky way. The MEGAs can lose a small amount for days and weeks on end and on heavy volume, while the others make good gains in light volume, thus making the entire index and M/A look way above were it should be. Same the other way around. So meanwhile towards the end of an uptrend, TA is showing gains in the index and even if your useing volume thats also painting a much more rosy picture than is real. Jim