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To: STK1 who wrote (24844)1/11/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: topwright  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 41046
 
Charles, as I write the Asian markets are in panic mode. Earlier I stated 6800, I'm sorry I meant to say 5800. I've long thought that the market was like a glass of beer, the beer stopped at 5800 and the foam began.

That's not to say that, that was then and this is now. Back then when I first wrote about 5800 the long bond was the ruling factor and it was edging up to 8% at the time. Now it's a whole different ball game, and I'd be inclined to believe that the low interest rates are worth an extra 1000 or so points on the DOW.

I really don't agree with you on the earnings. I feel that several companies even within the tech field will not be harmed, but in fact be helped by declinings supply side pricing in DRAM and transistors.
DELL's CEO Micheal Dell stated that only 5% of sales were Asian, yet 85% of resources are from the Pacific Rim. Even the chip makers like TXN should only be hurt for a quarter or two.

The biggie in all this is China. If they buckle under, then there is a long lasting problem that could be of global scale. Otherwise if they stay the route, and they should, then they could in fact pull the Asian region out of this. Indonesia may really have a serious problem as they are not really a single government/country so it may be difficult for the IMF to intervene. Korea and Taiwan may have a few bad hair days leftalso, but Japan could rebound fast.

I think that if you see some earning surprises to the upside, we could turn on a dime and lead the other markets into a stablilizing effect. But if earning surprises are ignored, it ain't gonna be a pretty picture.

Lets hope that the European's put on the brakes.

RB