Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (138424)	1/21/2018 10:08:42 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217789

Life moves on ElM. Towns that had a purpose can lose it. No problem. Things change. Here are some towns that over 100 years have boomed then faded, some vanishing nearly completely. Japan must have the same thing. Woodville Ohura Thames Rangataua Raetihi Karangahake Tokoroa Twizel Not to mention every Maori pa that existed before the English taught them to wear pants and raise cattle instead of cooking each other for dinner. I have memory of communities that existed 50 years ago but the farms, houses and lives have long gone, being paved over with parking areas and motels. The Chinese community hall in Auckland is built where my grandmother's farm was. New Zealand is of similar area to Japan but has 5 million people. Japan should still have 10 times as many for this century. That's enough to do pretty much anything. Especially when working with 5 billion other people. Mqurice

To: elmatador who wrote (138424)	1/21/2018 11:54:49 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	1 Recommendation Recommended By elmatador Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

Demographic Time Bomb - The 2016 scrapping of China's one-child policy has failed to trigger a widely expected wave of childbirths. - caixinglobal.com Childbirth data released Thursday by the Chinese government's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cast doubt over earlier projections of a rise in the birth rate: NBS said childbirths nationwide declined to 17.3 million in 2017, down 680,000 from 2016 and far below an estimate of up to 21.95 million childbirths for 2017 issued by the National Health and Family Planning Commission shortly after the two-child policy was introduced. China could in fact experience a “precipitous fall” in childbirths as women in their child-bearing years have recently appeared reluctant to bear more than one offspring due to rising housing and schooling costs, according to a recent report by Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, and Huang Wenzheng, a demographer at Johns Hopkins University. Liang and Huang further expect the number of childbirths to decline sharply this year and by between 300,000 and 800,000 annually over the next decade. Although the new family planning policy could challenge public resource allocations, more studies will be needed to assess its full impact, according to Professor Lu Ping at Zhejiang University’s Research Center for Public Policy for Children. “Given the rising number of migrants amid rapid urbanization, policymakers could be blindsided if they continue to use data collected via the household registration system, which excludes migrants, to allocate school resources,” Lu said. The Beijing municipal government pledged to give any school operator or investor 10,000 yuan ($1,500) for every classroom seat created in a kindergarten, according to a city government document on school subsidies released in January. But there may already be an over-supply. Many kindergartens and preschools that have not been counted by government statisticians have been deemed “illicit” not because of poor construction or substandard teaching but because their builders violated zoning rules, according to Song Yingquan, an associate professor at Peking University’s China Institute for Educational Finance Research. An easing of zoning rules "could help ease the supply crunch and save public resources,” he said.

To: elmatador who wrote (138424)	1/21/2018 5:30:08 PM
From: Gemlaoshi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

Elmat, When a country’s towns and villages face extinction. Keeping Malthus and The Club of Rome straight-line projections in mind, economic forecasting with a ruler is always problematic. Japan's decline, China's rise, and USA meanderings will provide plenty of surprises and entertainment as we journey into the long-term future. Return to natural state is also an ill-defined notion. By selectively choosing start dates and end dates, one can rationalize just about any desired conclusion.