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The Road to the Middle Kingdom: China’s New Silk Road
Perry Arrasmith
Marco Polo’s visit to the court of Kublai Khan irrevocably changed the way the Venetian merchant perceived the world. While residing in the court of the Khan, Polo likely learned that the name of the Khan’s dominion, ‘Zhongguo,’ translated into ‘Middle Country.’ “I tell you,” Polo wrote, “no day in the year passes that there do not enter the city 1,000 carts of silk alone, from which are made quantities of cloth and silk and gold, and of other goods.” With riches flowing into the Khan’s empire from the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Central Asia, it was not wonder some truly thought it to be the center of the world.
Modern China is now embarking on a path reminiscent of the economic glory found in the times of the Khan. When the Nineteenth Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party opened in Beijing on October 18, 2017, China’s Paramount Leader Xi Jinping made a call for “ a new era” where the nation would enter the international arena as a “leading global power.” This “new era” follows a period where China has continued to extend its influence on the world stage under Xi’s leadership.
Under Xi, The Belt and Road Initiative (initially known as the One Belt One Road Initiative) is poised to be one of the most important international endeavors ever undertaken by Chinese government. Through a series of infrastructure projects traversing both land and sea, China envisions a new economic system of cooperation built under its helm. If realized, the initiative could stand to change the political, economic, and cultural dynamics of the international community in the next century.
The Vision: China’s Role in a New World
As outlined in an action plan released under the authority of the State Council, there is a need to “carry on the Silk Road Spirit in the face of the weak recovery of the global economy, and complex international and regional situations.” In seeking to increase global ties, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is defined as “a systematic project, which should be jointly built through consultation to meet the interests of all, and efforts should be made to integrate the development strategies of the countries along the Belt and Road.”
Since 1980, the IMF has estimated that China’s GDP has grown at 10 percent annually. However, China’s growth rate has steadily declined since 2010, and fell to the lowest level in over 25 years in 2016.
With signs of a slowing economy, some experts believe that the BRI will enable China to continue its economic growth by moving segments of its workforce into projects abroad. “Right now, China’s markets are highly saturated with a highly trained workforce. For many, the BRI presents a welcome opportunity to put these workers into markets which are not oversaturated,” said Meg Rithmire, associate professor at Harvard Business School. With many developing nations lacking the experts needed to construct major infrastructure projects, Chinese workers have moved abroad to fill the gap.
Additionally, economic growth has not benefitted all parts of China equally. China’s coastal provinces of the east have benefitted more than provinces in the interior. Within the four western-most provinces (Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Gansu), a 2011 estimatefound that the average per capita income was 30-50 percent below the national mean. Through the BRI plan, rail lines that connect these provinces to Central Asia and Europe would develop these regions economically and encourage population growth, strengthening their vitality.
Economic development can also aid the Chinese government in establishing a more stable domestic scene while also bolstering its international clout. “By integrating their economic interests with their political might, China is setting itself up for the long haul; their intent is to establish an economic order which will challenge the status quo” said Peter Dutton, Director of the Chinese Maritime Institute at the Naval War College, in an interview with the HPR. China’s foreign policy has evolved largely in tandem with the economic reforms witnessed over the last three decades, and it may exert its foreign policy to protect economic interests.
China’s Future on the Eurasian Supercontinent
The BRI has been divided into six separate land corridors and a maritime silk road, reaching many nations. The land corridors run throughout much of the Eurasian landmass, but additional connections have also been made throughout Africa, making future developments in the continent a strong possibility.
As President Xi told an audience in Kazakhstan in 2013, “a nearby neighbor is better than a close friend.” Countries along the historic silk road have benefitted especially from their geographic importance. According to a November 2016 Heritage Foundation report, Central Asia has been a major recipient of economic attention, with China’s total investment overtaking Russia by over $20 Billion USD in 2013. Central Asia’s position as a land bridge between Asia and Europe and the Middle East has largely benefitted the region.
China’s economic support for many of its neighbors in the south has won many allies. In June 2016, China signed a $5 Billion USD agreement with Thailand on the construction of rail lines between the two countries. Other regimes throughout South East Asia like Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the Philippines also continue to receive offers for infrastructure development. Foreign Direct Investment from China has already reached nearly 30 percent of all investment in Thailand and 20 percent in Malaysia. Every country carries with it a unique view towards China, with political structures and national perceptions often determining how projects are received.
For countries along the BRI route, balancing Chinese offers with those from other countries has facilitated greater competition. “If you have two economic powers trying to earn the influence of a developing country, that developing country is going to have more to go on,” Rithmire told the HPR. While researching Indonesia, Rithmire has found that “often times, the Chinese government will have to work within the bounds of local governments and respect local authority. More often than not, this is easier said than done.” Between other economic powers like the United States, Japan, and Korea, Chinese authorities appear to be joining a table where others are also sitting.
One curious example of this is currently developing in Vietnam. Competition between Japan and China in reaching out to developing countries is noticeable. In Vietnam, the Ho Chi Minh city’s subway system is currently being constructed by a Japanese Company, while the subway system in Hanoi is being constructed by a Chinese company. Locals have criticized both projects for various reasons, but the Chinese project has reportedly been wrought with less oversight, with even a local passerby being killed near a construction site. In contrast, Japan’s project has been noted for being comparably safer and more efficient.
Naval Power: The Maritime Silk Road
Beyond the influence China is already expected to accrue through the construction of its six major land corridors, the strategic construction of ports stretching from the Eastern China Sea to the Mediterranean adds to the BRI’s size and scope. China plans to unite ports in Europe, the Middle East, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and East Asia all under one common framework.
One of the most important potential ports is located in Gwadar, Pakistan. As a part of the China-Pakistan corridor, the small city of 50,000 is set to be a major link between the Maritime Silk Road and the maritime commerce along the Arabian Sea. The project will provide mainland China with access through the city of Kashgar (in Xinjiang) to the global economy without having to pass the strait of Malacca or the coasts of India.
On the Horn of Africa, China’s decision to establish its first overseas military base in Djibouti was also precipitated by a $3.4 Billion USD investment in a railroad connecting the landlocked nation of Ethiopia to the port of Djibouti City. According to a January 2017 South China Morning Post article, the construction of the railway could be the first step of a larger 2000 Km railway which could eventually connect the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
In response to the development of new bases, other regional powers have attempted to respond with their own projects. Two neighbors with historically bad relations with China, Japan and India, announced the creation of an Asia-Africa corridor in May 2017. The plan could challenge Chinese investment plans and escalate competition between the powers.
Visitors on the Home Field: International Implications
The emergence of new relationships is always bound to affect the nature of old ones. The BRI’s entrance into certain regions will undoubtedly affect current political issues. Whether it concerns spheres of influence or territorial claims, the clout China has exhibited through the BRI represents a new level of power from the nation.
Furthermore, the BRI raises questions of how the outside world will affect regions already on the fringes of what has traditionally been the Chinese nation. For example, Xinjiang, a territory in western China, has been a hotbed of Muslim extremism. With Kashgar and Urumqi— the two largest cities in Xinjiang—serving as major gates into the country from the West, the Chinese government has viewed an increase in Islamic Extremism as a threat to economic and political stability.
Regions historically controlled by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union are also seeing a growing Chinese influence, as the Chinese government is lobbying for deals to expand railway lines into the territory. Infighting among members of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, when combined with trade conflicts among various Central Asian States and Russia, have generated roadblocks for the Chinese.
However, rail lines continue to spring up along the Caucasus. The construction of a line through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey has been hailed by Turkish President Erdogan as a harbinger of future economic growth. The desire for rail lines into Europe has forced China to also wade into the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Due to its strategic location as a gateway into the European market, strong relations with the Ukraine would be a major prize for the Chinese government. With Russia dependent upon strong relations with China, it is unknown if China’s warming relations with Russia’s adversary will affect the status quo.
Challenger on the World Stage
The Trump administration currently lacks an answer to China’s rising global prominence. The Obama’s Administration’s Trans-Pacific Partnership was initially seen as a strong counter to the BRI, but the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw from the TPP has largely destroyed any chances of countries having other options.
The post-Cold War Order dominated by a unipolar power–the United States–will need to contend with the rollout of policies such as the BRI, and with Chinese economic and militaristic growth. The emergence of China as a military power will challenge America’s military re-focus on the Asia theatre, and the establishment of maritime bases could complicate tensions in the South China Sea, where China currently faces rival claims from the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan—many American allies— over the same oceanic territory.
The impact of the BRI is impossible to gauge at this moment. The initiative, still only an idea in some regions, remains largely uncertain. However, the project tells a larger story of China’s rise in this century. Chinese President Xi Jinping is now seen as the most powerful leader in the country since Mao. After suffering from foreign exploitation and internal turmoil for nearly two centuries, the BRI reflects a desire for a China to move into a future much in tune with its glorious past.
Image Credit: Jim Trodel/Wikimedia Commons |
