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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gottfried who wrote (5515)2/12/2018 10:57:06 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Gottfried

  Respond to of 26583
 
Is this enough to explain Micron's woes?

New IC manufacturing lines to boost total industry wafer capacity by 8%, says IC Insights
Feb 12, 14:42
IC industry wafer capacity, specifically in the memory segment, was inadequate to meet demand throughout 2017. However, new IC manufacturing lines are expected to boost industry capacity by 8% in both 2018 and 2019, according to IC Insights.

Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Technology, Intel, Toshiba/Western Digital, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology all plan to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next few years, IC Insights said. Samsung and SK Hynix both will also boost their DRAM production capacities in 2018 and 2019
IC Insights forecast that from 2017-2022, annual growth in IC industry capacity will average 6% compared to 4.8% average growth from 2012-2017.
and
If all the new fab capacity expected to be brought on-line in 2019 happens as planned, the volume of capacity added that year will approach the record set in 2007, IC Insights said. More than 18 million 8-inch equivalent wafers per year of new capacity is expected to be added in 2019, and this number even assumes some of the massive DRAM and NAND fabs being built by China-based companies will not be carried out quite as aggressively as has been advertised. IC Insights believes that construction of these China-owned fabs is progressing slower than planned.
Some may believe "it isn't different this time" and China, like Korea, Taiwan and Japan in past cycles, overbuilds and swamps the industry.

Since I added to Lam last week on the test of the market low, I'm hoping the demand for their gear holds up for awhile longer to get another rally to sell those shares into.



I just keep my fingers crossed that Lam hasn't made their dreaded double top to start the decline when fundamentals still APPEAR great.



To: Gottfried who wrote (5515)6/21/2018 12:31:30 PM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Gottfried

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26583
 
I remember when this used to be a big deal on many boards....

Record sales too!!

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts May 2018 Billings
semi.org

MILPITAS, Calif. — June 19, 2018 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.70 billion in billings worldwide in May 2018 (three-month average basis), according to the May Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 0.6 percent higher than the final April 2018 level of $2.69 billion, and is 19.2 percent higher than the May 2017 billings level of $2.27 billion.

“May 2018 monthly global billings of North American equipment manufacturers exceeded last month's level to set yet another record,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “Demand for semiconductor equipment remains strong on the back of smart, data-centric applications such as artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), big data, and edge computing.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.



Billings
(3-mo. avg)

Year-Over-Year

December 2017

$2,398.4

28.3%

January 2018

$2,370.1

27.5%

February 2018

$2,417.8

22.5%

March 2018

$2,431.8

16.9%

April 2018 (final)

$2,689.9

25.9%

May 2018 (prelim)

$2,705.8

19.2%



Source: SEMI ( www.semi.org), June 2018

SEMI publishes a monthly North American Billings report and issues the Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) report in collaboration with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). The WWSEMS report currently reports billings by 24 equipment segments and by seven end market regions. SEMI also has a long history of tracking semiconductor industry fab investments in detail on a company-by-company and fab-by-fab basis in its World Fab Forecast and SEMI FabView databases. These powerful tools provide access to spending forecasts, capacity ramp, technology transitions, and other information for over 1,000 fabs worldwide. For an overview of available SEMI market data, please visit www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo.

The data contained in this release were compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

About SEMI

SEMI® connects over 2,000 member companies and 1.3 million professionals worldwide to advance the technology and business of electronics manufacturing. SEMI members are responsible for the innovations in materials, design, equipment, software, devices, and services that enable smarter, faster, more powerful, and more affordable electronic products. FlexTech, the Fab Owners Alliance (FOA) and the MEMS & Sensors Industry Group (MSIG) are SEMI Strategic Association Partners, defined communities within SEMI focused on specific technologies. Since 1970, SEMI has built connections that have helped its members prosper, create new markets, and address common industry challenges together. SEMI maintains offices in Bangalore, Berlin, Brussels, Grenoble, Hsinchu, Seoul, Shanghai, Silicon Valley (Milpitas, Calif.), Singapore, Tokyo, and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit www.semi.org and follow SEMI on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Association Contact

Michael Hall/SEMI
Phone: 1.408.943.7988
Email: mhall@semi.org

Notes

Next SEMI Billings report is July 24, 2018 at 3:00pm Pacific

For information on SEAJ Book-to-Bill Report, visit www.seaj.or.jp



To: Gottfried who wrote (5515)7/19/2018 11:41:53 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26583
 
Ouch!
From Chipmaker TSMC cuts revenue outlook again on cryptocurrency gloom

TSMC trimmed its capex estimate to $10-10.5 billion from $11.5-12 billion for the year, citing a rescheduled payment and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Do you still update your charts showing capital equipment spending and/or semi sales vs AMAT price?

It seems the decline in AMAT, LRCX and others that saw price peak just after the tariff announcement in January was justified.