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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (4403)	1/13/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Clark, you may very well be correct that Korean inventory dumping caused 16Meg configs to fall to $2.20. Also, I don't think anybody truely understands why memory prices fluctuate in the short term. They are extremely volatile. This is why I like to see a trend established before deciding on the end of the cycle. A sustained increase in memory prices would cause me to throw in the bearish towel. I can assure you that I have no ego with respect to the capital market. Realization of changing fundamentals before the analyst is crutial for success. I will keep the board apprised of the pricing situation as I believe this is the religion of determining cycle changes. In closing on this topic, I'm still assigning a 95% probability that we are going to see another down leg on this cycle, and that valuations of equips are not currently discounting the deceleration of fundamentals. Remember, that Micron is still losing money even at todays prices which are well below the blended average ASP reported in their latest quarter. Jay