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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (628)	1/13/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

I strongly suspect that most of the profits to be made are going to be made in very short term positions. Selling the rallies and buying the dips will probably be the prudent way to play this market through the rest of the earnings season. There is tremendous support for the market with new retirement account dollars flooding back into the market, "last minute" IRA contributions for tax purposes on 1997 returns, intrest rates, and a "bounce" in overseas equity markets. Decisive direction could be obtained from a clearer picture on the earnings front in the 2nd quarter and greater understanding of the recovery efforts of the SE Asian economies. At this point the markets are basically crystal ball gazing and reacting to every subtle announcement on both the earnings front and economic fronts. I suspect that the underlying theme in corporate earnings this quarter is going to be problems resulting from the "Asian Contagion." While conventional wisdom would suggest that this is a cause to sell off securities, many investors will be seeking a place to park their money and may be looking to view this problem as being resloved in 6 months. MOT is selling this and so far, it appears to work. I suspect that INTC may do the same thing in their earnings announcement tonight. I am skeptical about this approach to supporting share prices near term and believe that the smart money will be looking to exit on strength and the "individual" will be looking to buy the weakness, resulting in a trading range capped at 8200 and supported at 7200. Wayde.