Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (6800)	1/13/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Harry Larson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

S&P has given AOL double B minus credit rating. Junk status.

To: Sam who wrote (6800)	1/13/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Brent D. Beal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

*I enjoy when bears post comments like this. It seems that it is only obvious to you Brent - of course, what other view would you have considering you just plain hate the company. Investing with blinders on is a very bad idea. Best to sit back and watch the show as you say...I'm sure you've already lost enough money shorting. * Actually I'm just barely even on shorting--I lost a nice sum on the CompuServe deal but made up for it on the nice dip after last quarter's earnings were announced, now for some response to your questions. . . I've seen several acticles, one in BusinessWeek, one in trade magazine, can't remember which one, and one in Forbes--I also watched a little blip than CNBC did on cable modems a while back. From these sources, granted they don't make me an expert, it looks like at many as 10 million cable modems could be deployed this year. . . to me that constitutes a significant roll out. Translation, at least 10 million of the most savvy customers, the cumstomers most likely to make purchases over the internet, will not be using AOL. . . A don't understand your point about the other ISPs--everything I've seen shows that many have higher growth numbers that AOL. I know this is the case for AT&T and I'll bet MSN at least doubles this year. It seems like you're invested in AOL so why don't you look these number up, it might be educational. In fact, I'd be interested in tracking the subscriber numbers for, say, AT&T, MSN, Earthlink, and anything MCI and Yahoo put together against AOL's numbers this year. I'll bet almost everyone posts better subscriber growth numbers, better churn numbers, etc. that AOL. . . Two other very clear trends also need to be mentioned here, both of which have been either been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal or other prominent sources--1) internet ad costs are dropping, and 2) the highest rate subscriber growth is coming from businesses (i.e. more and more people are accessing the web from work). Neither of these trends are particularly good for AOL. AOL is dogmeat and it's not just obvious to me. Have you checked the premium on AOL puts lately? How about short interest? How about insider sales? How about anybody who a) doesn't have a vested interest in the stock moving higher, b) can read a balance sheet, c) has half a brain, or d) isn't so caught up in the tulip mania they can still think straight. AOL isn't worth $20 a share, let alone $90. This doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in the stock if you believe there are still bigger idiots out there that will buy it from you tomorrow for even more of an idiotic price, but it does mean that you should be aware of what you're buying and try real hard not to be the last idiot left holding the bag.

To: Sam who wrote (6800)	1/13/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: White Shoes	Respond to of 13594

Oh no, MSN is gearing up for a "fairly serious" marketing campaign. Before, they must have been only "kinda serious." Yep, remember when Bill Gates underestimated the importance of the Internet & the power associated with being the browser company? Remember what happened after that. MSN used to be kinda like AOL. I suspect the retrenchment and retooling of MSN is going to be much bigger than just stepping up advertising. They've figured out that the AOL/MSN model is toast...and the new plan will be much broader. Doubt it will even be called MSN.