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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (14556)	1/13/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, >What in INTC's report would cause you to buy more even with a rise in stock prices? < I don't buy INTC but consider it an indicator for the health of the chip/computer industry. If results look ok, with margins in line with last quarter and earnings flat to improved from last quarter then I consider this neutral=good. If INTC gives positive earnings outlook going forward=good. If INTC indicates weaker sales or decreasing earnings projected going forward=bad. If chip plant expansion plans indicate growth or improvements required to upgrade fabs to 0.25uM is greater than $5B then AMAT should benefit from the upgrade. If INTC is healthy/growing then Semi-mfg's should benefit and this is very positive. >What info would cause you to revise your low 40's goal for amat upwards?< If Taiwan, Japan and Europe announce total of 10+ new fabs started this year, but I don't see this happening short term. I stick with my low $40's prediction in this overcapacity/uncertain market. Still a lot of wild cards that could change the complexion of the game, but things are looking better than 1-2 months ago. If AMAT announces some new technology that enables 0.13-0.18uM device geometries, then this could take the stock to high $40's or even low $50's. This would be the ideal situation for AMAT to assert itself and "own" the Semi mfg market. If this happens then NVLS and LRCX would have to merge to compete and smaller niche players would be aquired for their technology/patents, Such as AGAI, and MTSN there are others that may need to merge to survive this year. My horns are starting to grow. BB