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Strategies & Market Trends : STOCKS WITH ATTITUDE TEAM - FA/TA AND EVERYTHING ELSE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: James Strauss who wrote (1570)1/13/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Redhead  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2377
 
Swat team,

Thanks again for my stock anaylsis 101. I am learning that there are so many places to find details. I have to tell you I did not buy your other picks, not because of your research, but they didn't make my spine-tic. But, that is not to say I didn't learn much. I will now go and do my homework on the different sites and see what details you have unearthed about this stock. I will let you know if this tics. hahahaha. Don't mind me, intuition is very important to me. If it doesn't feel right, all the analysis in the world won't convince me. But you need the analysis and DD to make sound investment decisions. Thanks again for the time you all put into this and keep smiling.

Redhead



To: James Strauss who wrote (1570)1/13/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: Doug R  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2377
 
GTAX TA

The stochastics momentum has been in a solid uptrend across all periods since 10/20/97. The intermediate-term SMI is above the bullish threshold but moving down since 1/5. Shorter periods of the SMI indicate that a turn back up here is likely since the current short-term low in the indicator is higher than the previous low which was made on a slightly higher price bottom on the 6th.

The Bollinger bands show a solid uptrend and currently point to a baseing period for at least a couple more days.

The 34 day commodity channel index has been in an uptrend since 11/96 with a recent acceleration sitting on support. Today's move up so far implies that this acceleration will remain intact. If it does remain intact, the current price will be considered low as the trend continues. The 144 day CCI just touched +100 yesterday so any movement up from here would show good strength in the next several weeks with minimum downside risk. The 8 day CCI is currently at -100 and turning up which, along with the BB's, implies at least couple more days for the base to complete.

A combination of the 5, 13 and 34 dMA's shows that GTAX has used the 34 day MA as support before each move up. The moves typically begin as the 5 and 13 dMA's have converged. Yesterday the price moved down to the 34 dMA as the 5 and 13 were converging. In the sense of timing, this occurrance represents a buying opportunity with limitted risk. At this point a reasonable stoploss would be at a price of 6 13/16. With that as the downside and a possible short-term move to over 10 as the upside, the risk/reward ratio for the short-term is favorable. There are several charting indications that the short-term upside is in the 12 to 14 area. Intermediate-term indications are for 16 to 17.

Each short-cycle high that the stock has put in since 7/97 has been on increasingly higher 34 day RSI readings so it can be said that there is no intermediate or long-term divergence involved with the RSI. I would expect higher highs in price to be made based on this alone. Often a stock making its final 3 short-cycle price highs will do so on lower RSI peaks.

The short-term stochastics are putting in a convergent bottom here. Timingwise this is a favorable indication. The long-term (233, 21, 34) stochastics show a strong breakout from an inverted head and shoulders with a neckline that begins in 6/96 and runs across the very bullish value of 80. The breakout occurred as the stock broke out of an equally long cup with handle formation on heavy volume and is continuing up. This type of activity indicates that GTAX is an excellent candidate for a potential short to intermediate term double from here.

Taken as a whole, the move from the lows to the current price could be seen as the first intermediate-term cycle of a two stage move. The current base serves as the measuring point between the two cycles. Often the second move associated with such a chart is equal in price to the first. This measuring technique projects a price of 14 over the next 6 months.

Doug R