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Technology Stocks : BE Aerospace (BEAV) Breakout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Piotr Koziol who wrote (71)	1/14/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Harry Abruzzese	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 210

Jay, I just read the great news. I had an invitation to give my top stock pics and outlook for 98' to the Bull and Bear Financial Report. The deadline was early this morning and I worked on it till the last minute. This was before the news of Indonesia cooperating and vowing to work diligently on a solution with the IMF and others. At this point, I feel very positive about the commercial aircraft industry future and the aerospace industry in general. Below is my top pics and write-up. The theme of the outlook was to illistrate the growth in many other parts of the world aside from South East Asia. It was difficult to choose from the 33 companies I'm following to date. These are the ones who's stock price I expect to advance the most over the year. Best Regards, Talk to you soon. Harry Magellan Aerospace Trades on the Toronto Stock exchange under the ticker symbol "MAL.TO" (Yahoo quotes) Recent Price (1-13-97) $ 8.75 (Canadian) B E Aerospace Inc. Trades on the NASDAQ under the symbol "BEAV" Recent Price (1-13-98) $22 22/32 Derlan Industries Limited Also Trades on the Toronto Stock exchange under the symbols "DRL", "DRL.TO" (Yahoo quotes) or "DRL.PR.A" Recent Price (1-13-97) $4.35 (Canadian) Banner Aerospace Trades on the New York stock exchange under the symbol "BAR" Recent Price (1-13-97) $10 5/16 RMI Titanium Trades on the New York stock exchange under the symbol "RTI" Recent Price (1-13-98) $21 78 Wyman Gordon Company Trades on the NASDAQ under the symbol "WYMN" Recent Price (1-13-98) $ 17 15/16 Lan Chile Airlines Trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "LFL" Recent Price (1-13-98) $11 1/2 Outlook for 1998 As an advocate of trade globalization, I expect the healthy U.S. economy to run at slower growth rate than in 97' in the first half of 1998 and begin to pick up towards the middle of the year. Low inflation, high productivity, low interest rates and increased exposure to other growing markets, combined with moderate wage increases, are formula's contributing to, among other things, a boost in consumer confidence. Other factors bolstering the U.S. and numerous other countries will be the benefit from the continued growth of free trade and the new open skies treaties agreements, 15 of which the U.S. entered into during 1997. To date the U.S. has entered into open skies treaties with 28 countries and I expect that Japan will be added within the next few months. Countries with liberal trade policies will be the major benefactors of global markets. Neighboring Canada with its heavy exposure to the U.S. economy will continue on its course to an even healthier economy. The economies of Latin America will see similar conditions with Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela and Brazil leading the way. The islands of the U.K. have shown great improvement over the last few years and should benefit from what I believe will be a good year of growth from Europe and other flourishing markets. Countries like Poland and Hungary in Eastern Europe have been showing signs of strength going into 98' and I expect this trend to continue but at a more moderate pace than last year. China's GDP is expected to grow at 9 to10 percent year-on-year in 1998. So far the economy isn't affected by South East Asia's problems. The Consumer price inflation (CPI) rate in China is expected to grow at around 5 or 6%. As is the case with many other countries, the Asian concerns could slow growth slightly while lowering inflation which would add to an already heathy economic situation there. Assuming a viable tax code and reform policy can be adopted by Russia's government, they will begin to see growth (perhaps 2%) for the first time since 1989. India's new government has the job of creating and implementing a reform policy that will further liberalize trade and attract even more foreign investment. Although, the huge economies of South East Asia are in a period of turmoil and may fall into recession, inevitably further effecting the economies of the globe by slowing growth. I believe the impact from the region's turmoil will be partially offset by a growth tourism and foreign investments (primarily in real estate). Hopefully, more liberal trade policies will emerge out of Japan as I believe this will benefit Japan and in effect add to the regions stability. Furthermore, I believe that many of the economies of the western hemisphere have entered into 1998 with stronger growth than earlier projections revealed. The impact of the Asian turmoil may not be as totally unwelcome as previously thought for obvious reasons if this is the case. Technology will play a key roll in many forms in the course of economic events throughout the year. One of which is internet commerce. It is expected to begin to come of age in 1998 adding another variable into the equation. In 1997, the amount of new internet addresses nearly doubled. The growth will continue in 1998 and beyond. Companies save money by doing business over the internet while customers benefit from the convenience and throughout much of the world, particularly in Europe, the cost of telecommunications is in a period of decline. I believe that 1998 will be the first year that internet commerce will have a noticeable impact the world's economy. To speculate on the economic situation is a game of high level uncertainty especially in this unstable environment. Without a clear view of the nature of all the events taking place, I can only say that this outlook is highly speculative. With that said, if positive developments present themselves, similarly to the scenario above, the air transport industry will continue to gain momentum, fueling even higher air cargo and passenger traffic. It is my opinion that the aerospace industry is the fastest growing industry at this time and an increase in air traffic and global economic health would only serve to bolster the dramatic growth taking place within the industry. End