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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis who wrote (45567)	1/14/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: Johnnie W.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

You can start blowing taps over INTC now! It's heading the way of ORCL, MU,Rambus amd Cymer! DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To: Dennis who wrote (45567)	1/14/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Respond to of 186894

My guess is that the analysts might start to factor in Merced in the second half of 1998 but I expect they will discount it until later in the year. This is because of the perception that the last generation technologies are hanging on longer and also the lack of understanding that the analysts have about Merced. Even Pentium II isn't expected to peak until H2/98 so my thinking would be that Merced wont even hit the radar screen until late in the year. But that could change with a masterful PR campaign should HP & Intel decide to blitz the media. Merced is, for now, a long term event for this stock.

To: Dennis who wrote (45567)	1/14/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Barry A. Watzman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

>re: "won't the anticipation of Merced start to kick in Later in the year as far as stock price and PE growth ???" Hard to say; all that Intel has said is "1999"; it COULD be December, 1999, in which case no, there will not be any "anticipation" this year. There may not be any anticipation at all, the "Merced Boom" might not come for 6-18 months after first shipment, depending on how the volume ramp up goes (and it could be slow, even disappointing, at first). Also, I know that no one on this board wants to face this, but it is possible that Merced could BOMB. No, I don't think it will happen, but it's possible, given that it doesn't even exist yet. There could be bugs, disappointing performance, delays, yield problems (remember, it's 0.18 micron), serious delays in operating systems or applications software, or any of a couple dozen other problems that would prevent or delay significant profitability, or even cause reduced profits or a loss. Don't get me wrong, I THINK that this is going to be the goose that lays the golden egg, but I'm not going to count the chickens before they hatch. It was the more restrained posts, even the pessimists, whose predictions last night about today's events proved to be right. I'm an Intel bull, but I try not to be a blind bull. Barry Watzman