When it comes to standardization, Gigabit
Ethernet has been on a fast track, but it may
take a bit longer than expected for users to
accept this new bandwidth-boosting technology.
First developed in late 1996, Gigabit Ethernet's
standards process has progressed quickly, and
it is on schedule to receive ratification from the
Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers in
March. From the first, the 1000Base T
technology, which transfers data at a rate of 1
gigabit per second, was perceived as a logical
successor to Ethernet and Fast Ethernet and
thus a threat to Asynchronous Transfer Mode
(ATM). Not only does it offer transmission
speeds as good as or better than ATM, but it
also lets network managers maintain the
tried-and-true Ethernet format.
However, Gigabit Ethernet technology, has had
to overcome its own set of limitations.
It uses multimode laser light sources traveling
over fiber cables, which in certain situations can
cause transmission delays. While vendors
participating in the Gigabit Ethernet Alliance
standards body seemed to have come up with a
solution in late 1997 - using jumper cables -
concerns remain. Also, because Gigabit
Ethernet will be running primarily on fiber,
managers who have put off the move from cable
to fiber will face a wiring migration if they wish to
deploy Gigabit Ethernet.
Many vendors hyped the technology and their
products before all the interoperability issues
were worked out, but proponents say Gigabit
Ethernet has one overwhelming advantage: It
offers more network speed within a familiar
management paradigm. Thus, it is bound to
make a dent in ATM's market share, and it
behooves managers to understand the
technology's real prospects.
Just the facts
As it was once envisioned that ATM would help
end-user desktops achieve fantastic throughput,
so have many assumed that Gigabit Ethernet
will be the natural next step for workstations
currently enjoying the benefits of Fast Ethernet.
But "virtually no widely used desktop computer,
either PowerPC or Pentium class, will get much
benefit from Gigabit Ethernet direct
connections," according to network consultant
Rich Seifert of Los Gatos, Calif., who is currently
writing a book titled "Gigabit Ethernet:
Technology and Applications for High-speed
LANs."
On the other hand, Gigabit Ethernet probably
won't be deployed on classic WANs because of
quality-of-service issues. Thus, Gigabit
Ethernet's likely usefulness will be limited in the
beginning to high-performance workgroups and
campus backbones. Unfortunately, most Mac
networks don't fall into the first category, Seifert
said. "There are very few, if any, Macs that fall
into the 'ultra high-performance' workgroup
class," he said. "We are talking about high-end
Silicon Graphics machines, multiprocessor Sun
UltraSPARCs - that kind of thing."
Instead, the most likely scenario for Gigabit
Ethernet implementation will be a campus LAN
where Fast Ethernet has already been
deployed, and initially Fast Ethernet switches
connecting two network segments will be
replaced or upgraded to Gigabit Ethernet
products.
Asante Technologies Inc. of San Jose, Calif., is
one Mac-friendly network vendor that is planning
a stable of Gigabit Ethernet products for
campus applications. Although Chris Tomlinson,
director of product management, said it is too
early to talk of firm release dates, he said
Asante plans to offer Gigabit Ethernet switches,
repeaters and even adapter cards in 1998 and
expects early adapters to be found within
Asante's traditional stronghold markets in digital
graphics, prepress and publishing.
And for those who can't wait, Team ASA Inc. of
San Diego, Calif., unveiled at this month's
Macworld Expo in San Francisco a Gigabit
Ethernet PCI card for the Mac (see 01.12, Page
21).
Toward 2000
Because Gigabit Ethernet's main application
will be campus backbones, it will compete with
high-speed technologies already available,
including ATM, Fiber Distributed Data Interface
(FDDI) and Fast Ethernet. This crowded
network landscape, as well as some of the
shine wearing off of the technology's image,
means the market for Gigabit Ethernet products
is expected to grow somewhat slower than
analysts first anticipated.
Tam Dell'Oro, president of the Dell'Oro Group of
Portola Valley, Calif., predicted that sales of
Gigabit Ethernet products would top $60 million
by the end of 1997. Now, however, Dell'Oro said
she believes Gigabit Ethernet market revenues
won't reach $70 million until the end of 2000 and
will be just $100 million by the end of 2001. This
is compared with more than $700 million by the
end of 1999 for Fast Ethernet and $1.2 billion
for LAN-focused ATM products.
There's no question that Gigabit Ethernet
continues to have a bright future: The scores of
vendors participating in the Gigabit Ethernet
Alliance and their confidence in developing
products attest to that. But Dell'Oro said once
network managers see the products and start
trying pilot programs, it may take them longer
than expected to warm to Gigabit Ethernet.
"Users will have to set up their networks a little
bit differently and figure out how it is all going to
work," she said. "And that's going to take some
time." |
