To: Marshall Teitelbaum who wrote (1288 ) 1/15/1998 3:09:00 PM From: Harry D. Kramer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2205
Marshall, Rick & Bill, O.K., Smith & Nephew obviously likes the product. But actually it has no other choice. I mentioned this before, management is trying to build the reorganization of the company on ATIS' products. Dermagraft is S&N's only exciting new product with a huge market potential and now they made it official that they bet the whole house on this one card. But is this new arrangement really that exciting for ATIS, or more important, is it a great deal for ATIS shareholders? Hhhmmmm...... I am not sure. Think we have to look at the details of the deal, if they are made available. I definitely don't like the company expanding its share base again. Does anyone know what S&N will pay for the new shares? Although the deal makes sense from a commercialization strategy point of view, I don't like to see ATIS putting their future into one hand. ATIS has no other commercial collaboration partner that's worth mentioning. That's odd. I don't know of any other major biotech company that concentrates only on one collaboration partner for its pipeline. Not even those who have big pharma as majority shareholder (Chiron-Novartis, Genentech-Roche, GI-AHP, .....) give their whole future in the hands of one (development &) marketing partner. All Dermagraft indications, cartilage and who knows what's next .... and all with Smith & Nephew!?! From an investor's point of view S&N hasn't delivered in the past, and maybe will not deliver in the future. I don't think we really know with whom we are in bed here and that makes me a little bit nervous. What I have heard and read, some shorts think that Dermagraft may probably get an approval from the FDA, but may not be able to capture a significant market share among diabetic ulcer patients after that. As a result, short covering hasn't been a driving force so far, because they are not afraid of the panel meeting. The stock is still going with the brakes on. Honestly, I wouldn't have thought that two weeks before the panel meeting we are still below $14. I remain mildly optimistic. I'd say ATIS at around $14 is still a nice hold and I hope to see it in the 20ies within the next 6-12 months. Whatever happens, 1998 will tell who is right and who is wrong. Happy New Year to everyone :-) (I know it's late, but I haven't been around for quite some time) Harry