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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (906)	1/15/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: HB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

This just confirms my view that Murphy ain't the world's brightest analyst, although I agree with him on some stocks. Citicorp may or may not be overpriced, but dumping on Greenspan for cutting interest rates because retirees savings compound at a lower rate, accusing him of "starving them" is idiocy. Inflation is low, real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation rate) are not especially low now compared to a few years ago. Does he think that higher interest rates and a recession would be good for fixed income retirees, and does he think that the higher budget deficits that would exist in this situation would help ease political pressure to cut social security? Lots of people think they know how to do Mr. Greenspan's job better than he does. A few may, but I'm pretty thankful most of them aren't, because if they were, we'd be ******'d pretty quick! From what I understand, Murphy's overall record on his picks isn't too hot. This is not to say Asian exposure won't hurt Citicorp, just that I wouldn't trust Murphy's analysis. HB

To: Worswick who wrote (906)	1/16/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick, on CCI I do not share Murphy's negative view: they have 23% of assets in Asia (didn't check it), so they have 77% pct elsewhere, more or less less exposed right now. When I was with my former employer, a merchant bank that dealt almost only internationally, we had many deals with Citibank. I was always impressed with their people and their operations. May not mean a lot, because it was only a small segment out of CCIs vast empire, but we dealt with others, too, with whom I was a lot less impressed (BTW, ING is another first-class outfit). Yes, I can see Murphy's reasoning. But I would not dare to sell CCI short or consider it the best available short. Ex-Asia they are going strongly. But it's certainly not a bad idea to wait and see what the true effect of Asian woes on CCI is/will be over the next 6 mos or so. Sure no need to rush out and buy CCI at $125. of course only my 2c, Thomas