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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (6472)	12/27/2018 1:57:34 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26408

From Dilbert: Opinion: This contrarian stock-market signal is flashing green Published: Dec 27, 2018 11:33 a.m. ET Sentiment indexes are among the lowest ever, signaling that stock-market timers remain extremely pessimistic Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers I monitor, as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI). This average currently stands at minus 15.6%, which means that the average timer is allocating about a sixth of his equity trading portfolio to going short. This minus 15.6% reading is one of the lowest on record. Only 4% of readings since 2000, in fact, were any lower. The last time that the HSNSI was as low as it’s been this month was February 2016, which was the bottom of the correction (some say bear market) that began in May 2015. A similar picture is painted by the sentiment data for stock market timers who focus on the Nasdaq market in particular (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). They’re even more bearish than those reflected in the HSNSI; the HNNSI currently stands at minus 61.1%. Only 3% of readings since 2000 have been lower than this. For decades I tracked him and his work couldn't make a portfolio that would beat buy and hold despite all sorts of proprietary indicators and access to the "best market timers." He wouldn't cover me because, I believe, I pointed out his coverage of Bob Brinker, who had a HUGE following, was not only flawed but biased and excused dishonest reporting of results so Brinker would mention Hulbert's service on his national radio show... Anyway... some bad blood. MarketWatch bought out his newsletter and they published his stuff for many years then they parted ways... probably found what I found... hard to keep subscribers to data that didn't add much value. Dilbert's very last article was a parting shot saying as much. Now he's selling access to his indicators where YOU get to decide how to make them useful! Funny how those who can't beat the markets ban you from their sites and delete your posts while knowing they can't put up an actual record on paper like I do that beats the markets, with or without adjusting for risk. It is almost universal I've found.