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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14777)	1/17/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: Dennis	Respond to of 70976

Stockdoctor, You say Long term AMAT is no brainer.... How long is long ?? Do you have any personal targets in mind. Thanks Dennis

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14777)	1/18/1998 10:06:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re:as I noted in previous posts the little guys like BRKS will continue to warn of slowdown as a result of ASIAN crisis and will not warrant the sector to trade at greater than average multiples.. S.MD, I've been saying for awhile now that ALL cos have been equally brutalized during the asian crisis will WS treating the entire equipment sector as a broad monolith and punishing any member. However, going forward I am inclined to believe that cos. such as AMAT, KLAC et al, which actually can offset the losses in asia with sales from their large backlog, will be rewarded with higher multiples than the industry average. Those who warn will be taken out behind the shed and shot and will languish since WS likes neither disappointment nor uncertainty. Hopefully AMAT will meet or exceed and life in AMAT land will once again be wonderful<G> Regards, brian PS Am looking into buying some BRKS and any other stock WS wants to give away

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14777)	1/18/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Stock MD, I forgot one thing in my previous post: your eps estimate for the qtr. If in fact AMAT can hit .55, and the outlook is other than end-of-the-world, this one is taking off! However, IMHO, I don't see AMAT hitting .55. I believe the consensus forecast is for .50, someone please correct me if I'm wrong. If AMAT is to indeed weather the current storm, they will need to spread out their current $1.7B backlog accross several qtrs. I don't think AMAT mgt. would go for the "quick kill" of a 5 cent beating of estimates when doing so would only increase their chance of missing estimates down the road since they have just used up a sizeable portion of their backlog that could have been next qtrs. eps. This being said, if AMAT does hit .55 or thereabout, this would be extremely bullish since mgt. doesn't view the current "crisis" as such and is willing to use their backlog believing more is on the way. In addition, this would be a record qtr., since the previous high in terms of eps was .505 (split-adjusted $1.01) regards, Brian

To: stockdoctor who wrote (14777)	1/18/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Jeff Olson	Respond to of 70976

Money magazine, Feb 98 issue, says AMAT to rise 103% in 12-18 months. "A.G. Edwards & Sons analyst Chris Chaney in St. Louis says he expects Applied's earnings to increase by more than 60% in 1998 to $2.12 per share. That could lift the stock to $60 within the next 12 to 18 months, for a powerful 103% gain." He also says "Applied has proved its abiltiy to outperform other equipment makers when the chips are down. For example, during the last industry downturn in 1996, Applied managed to raise its net profit margin slightly, to 14.9%, from 14.8% in 1995." There were some other good comments about AMAT as well as endorsements for NVLS, Teradyne (TER), and Photronics (PLAB). Should be good news for these stocks as stocks recomended in Money tend to do well for the next several weeks after they are recomended. Wouldn't be supprised to see AMAT rise to 37 before earnings based on this article alone.