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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14785)	1/18/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BK, Your post makes perfect sense. I would think that AMAT management would want to slightly exceed the estimate of $.50 by +.02 just to exceed expectations and show a continued growth pattern going forward. Spreading out the backlog may occur naturally due to delays in outstanding orders, the key is NEW SALES numbers. The conference call will either establish continued upward growth momentum, or flat projections for the next 6 months. As long as there is nothing significantly negative in the conference call the stock should continue to gain strength and re-inforce to the fund managers that they need to maintain their investment in the stock. Just my opinion, BB

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14785)	1/18/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Zacks consensus is 50 cents and $2 for the year. quote.yahoo.com GM

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14785)	1/18/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, BB,SF, and all: In making predictions about the short term price moves hoped for, no one except Teri has mentioned this weeks e reports from nvls and klac. I think if those reports are good,and management commentary is upbeat, we will see a move now. The opposite could happen,too, plunging prices to new lows. Any opinions on the importance of these reports? Gene

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14785)	1/19/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: stockdoctor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

If my math is right and correct me if I'm wrong, if I use weighted average shares of approximately 380M with a 35% effective tax rate and a 27% earnings before tax (all of which are pretty much average numbers for this Co. except the weighted avaerage shares which changes on a quarterly basis) AMAT would have to have revenues of approximately $1.186M to achieve .55 for the quarter. I have to disagree with you the this number is out of the question which is what I gather from your post. If SUNW can beat the street by .03 and more importantly NVLS by .01 I really believe AMAT will come close to .55. If the margins continue to rise I think it's dead on. I will stick with this till the earnings release and will suffer with the consequences of the thread if they come in at .50. In other words I would be very surprised. Now if you ask me about the book/bill, I'm praying for a number greater than one so we don't eat up the backlog. Personally, I'm hoping for 1.03 on revenues of $1.186M. If my math is slighly off, I apologize. FYI, I think the book/bill for semi in December was .97...... Another record. Long AMAT The Stockdoctor!