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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kerry Lee who wrote (13739)1/18/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: peter grossman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
Thank you for your informed posts over the last couple years.

I do quibble with comments like this:

"the upshot is there are several large OEM's up for grabs in the next 1-5 months and a larger quantity of smaller OEM's evaluating FC/Brocade/ANCR."

I liked the math of a Steve's posts. One can raise some objections, but the bottom line is if there is a good chance of winning a deal or two, (and given a few possibilities, there is) then the stock's a good bet.

In one major condition!!!

That Ancor doesn't go out of business first, or dillute themselves too severely. And that is a function of time. And you continually assign timeframes to your predictions, imbuing them with either a sense of credibility or false hope.

Please tell us which large OEMs have any chance of announcing a deal in the next month, or two, or three, or four, or five. How do you know?

The only guideline about timetables I can recall was great caution in the last conference call -- something about how protracted the evaluation process is.

So, again, whereas I appreciate your opinions and insight, if you want to link these potential deals with timeframes, please articulate why.

I regard this exact point -- when will big OEM announcements (for Ancor or competition) come -- as pretty much the only real reason to bet on or against Ancor. If we knew that, say, three announcements of large OEM deals would be made in the next, say, five months (as you say), then I'd take my chances they'd win one or two and increase my bet on Ancor.

OTOH, if you're again wrong on timing, and we knew that only two announcements would be forthcoming in six to twelve months, I'd at least take my chips off the table.

Do you at least agree that this timing issue is critical?