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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (50662)	1/14/2019 1:47:01 PM
From: tuck	1 Recommendation Recommended By IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Less worried about June expiration not getting the job done. It occurred to me that if they expected to file during this half, that must mean the MACE data comes out beforehand. So the March/April range looks right for that readout. What I really want to know is if the DMD data comes before or after. I guess I am neutral so slightly optimistic about the DMD readout. I have reservations about the in vivo preclinical data because of I don't think the animal model used matches up well to the patient population. On the other hand, the in vitro clinical data makes sense, and the IPF may provide some read through to the endpoints of this DMD study. I expect the MACE data to be at least solid. They only reservation I have is that the reduced doses used in ESA therapy these days may make it equivalent in MACE outcomes, except to the extent that it means not hitting the Hb target and getting bad MACE outcomes from that. So I expect roxa to have some advantage, and because it's the last big risk for a drug that hits a big market, I expect a big move, a bigger move than the current implied volatilities are telling me. So to me the options actually look kind of cheap. Would love to hear others thoughts and positioning ideas regarding the upcoming news flow. Full disclosure. I am long via a full core position of stock and also via a slug of sold June puts. I was actually looking to go even longer via calls. Cheers, Tuck

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (50662)	1/14/2019 2:34:05 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 52153

Selling covered calls is indeed a good hedge, as long as: 1. The expiration of the calls is at least 6 months in advance, to take advantage of the loss of premium, and 2. The share price has reached, or is close to reaching a plateau, with little likelihood of increasing. Under these circumstances, selling covered calls enhances income (from the loss of premium) and reduces downside risk of holding the shares. But in this instance, unless I'm completely wrong about FGEN, the stock has so much potential that one is more likely to lose profits than protect them. In more than 60 years of investing, I've rarely seen the potential that exists for FGEN from its two current drugs under testing, and at the same time, low downside risk, owing to the fact that one of them is already approved in China. Art