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To: CatLady who wrote (10)	1/18/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 237

Hi CatLady, I guess I should have chosen my wording more carefully. I didn't mean to imply that I had some carefully tested, bullet-proof method based on using Fib set members for time periods. I was just floating out another possible experiment to do. The "always" was only meant in the context of consistency--in other words, if you don't always use that method, you really can't judge how well it performs. I'm a believer in (developing a method for)setting indicator time periods based on cyclic behavior (peak to peak, trough to trough, and duty cycle), rather than arbitrarily. I'd be willing to bet, however, that a significance could be shown (for using Fib numbers) if for no other reason than the closeness of 55 and 34 to probably the number 1 and number 3 moving average periods (50 and 30 day, with 200 being number 2 (this is just a guess by the way)used by most market participants). I also believe in the fractal/scaled replica arguments for stock prices, but like anything, it can't be shown 100% of the time (it's not PURR-fect). That's the basic reason though, for thinking the use of Fib set members as the short, medium, and long term indicator parameters can exploit the scale independence seen in some stocks better than randomly selected periods. If you have any insights/experiences/beliefs with regard to Fibonacci retracements or Fibonacci time zones, please, meow away! dh P.S. you might check out www.fibtrader.com if you want some real Fib-hype! Actually, an impressive looking package.

To: CatLady who wrote (10)	1/20/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 237

Catlady: Here's some info on Fibonacci numbers and their use for time periods. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with it, just presenting it: TASC, V. 2:2 (66-73): FIBONACCI FORECAST EXAMPLES by Tucker J. Emmett -------------------------------- The Fibonacci Series is a succession of integers as follows: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, . . . etc., each successive number in the series being the sum of the two previous. The ratio between successive numbers in the series approaches .618, or inversely, 1.618. These ratios are extremely important. My Fibonacci approach to the futures markets involves subdividing each market into three specific categories: Pattern, Ratio, and Time. <<Here's what he says about Fib time periods in particular:>> (3) Time -- The third category, and perhaps the most decisive of the three, is the time frame during which a market carries out its bull or bear price action. Many years ago, I adopted the term 'cycle' to describe the time frame between price swings, this term is generally used by the trade today. 'Cycle' was used because the markets appear to complete a full bull move, or a full bear move, within a specific time cycle. And this time cycle is delineated by the Fibonacci series itself. Since, for my clients, I am concerned largely about the longer term cycles, I generally ignore the shorter term (3 day, 5 day, 8 day, 13 day) cycles, and concentrate on the 3 week (21 day), 5 week (34 day), 8 week (55 day), 13 week (89 day), 21 week (144 day) and so on. The longer term cycles tend to mark the major turning points of markets, and naturally the major turning points are what all traders are gunning for. Summary: To sum it all up, my Fibonacci approach is based upon an accurate analysis of the Pattern, Time, and Ratio of each market involved. In my eleven years of trading, both for myself and my customers, I have found no more accurate or helpful system than this application of the Fibonacci series to the futures markets. Tucker Emmett is a cum laude graduate from Harvard University where he studied mathematics and economics. In 1970 he was awarded the Juris Doctor degree from the University of Virginia Law School. He is a registered representative in securities and commodities and is a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He writes a bi-weekly review published by Anspacher on grains, meats, metals, and currencies.