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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14815)	1/18/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, I think you shouldn't worry about the high priced basket right now, concentrate on the lower priced basket bought in the low $30's only. I might be tempted to make 2 (50%)sell trades with the lower priced shares bought in the low/mid $30s and set a price point at 25%-35% from my cost basis if I suspected the stock may drop again thru the spring and keep a cash position waiting for the drop if it occurs to scoop up more shares at potentially lower prices. The other 50% you may want let ride and enjoy the longer term gain benefits if it goes into the mid $40's+. If you sell early you will make pretty good return, but may not maximize the longer term potential that you might enjoy if you let it ride until it achieves your upper target price. I like to think that an investor should target 50-100% gains per year by "riding the waves" and knowing when to get on and off. I try to set upper and lower targets and make my move within 10% of either extreme if I can. It doesn't always work perfectly but the returns have been exceptional. WITH AMAT TIMING IS EVERYTHING I'm in somewhat of a similar situation and will be taking profits at $10+ gains on about 50% of my low basket to give me some additional cash position in the event of a future drop. The other 50% I will hold until I achieve 100% return on the origional investment and will then turn it into a cash position for future bargain trading. My high priced basket is more of a long term play but I will take 25-50% gains if they are available and go back into cash to catch the bottom of a wave when I can. This is a dynamic environment (this year) and I may be able to make several moves in and out (hopefully). My target goal is to make 100%+ gains this year by getting on and off as the opportunities afford themselves. Nice thought, huh? Happy surfin', BB

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14815)	1/18/1998 7:49:00 PM
From: Steve Byers	Respond to of 70976

don't be greedy with the out trade.... take 39 and wait for another opportunity to get back in lower... I'm going to trade out at 34 with half my shares and if it hits 37.5 with the rest... about 6,000 in each block... plus will trade out of my 401k around 36... another 2500 shares.... and take a shot at buying back in within a month after February earnings release....

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14815)	1/18/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Sorin A. David	Respond to of 70976

Instead of selling at 38 5/8, why not sell the covered options for $40 when the stock hits $39 let's say? You'll get at least $2 and this will give you little cover on the way down (if it corrects from there) but effectively you would be selling those shares at $42 if you sell them at all. Just a thought.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14815)	1/18/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: Steve Rolfe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, First off, I am pretty new to trading so keep that in mind. I think if the shares you talk about as trading shares are really trading shares then it might make sense to try and get smaller gains at a time. Since the ASIA thing looks like it will hang around a while I believe you could get in and out with 2 point gains at least 5 times before AMAT hits 39 5/8. This would give you the equivalent gain (10 points versus 9 5/8 assuming a price of 30 for AMAT right now) The trick is to determine the 2 point range. The range right now looks like 28/29 to 30/31. You could move this range up as AMAT creeps up towards earnings. The nice thing about this strategy is that AMAT does not have to creep up for you to get the gains. I have heard and read that it is best just to buy and hold because as you mentioned you may miss a big upswing. My personal observation is that if you know a stock well you should be able to gain enough by small trades to make up for the big jump. I also have noticed lately that the big jumps are the exceptions and the creeping down and creeping up are the rule. Another observation is that you can get murdered when a stock is sliding without stops and without the guts to short. It is probably best to avoid a stock in the middle of a slide(Don't ask me how to determine this - I thought AMAT was done sliding at 38 and at 33). The beauty of AMAT is that it has tested 26/27 3 times and bounced back strong lending significant confidence that this is a bottom(at least to me). It has been in the 28-31 range for the most part lately. It would be interesting to see how many times a buy at 28.5 and sell at 30.5 strategy would have worked since the intial time AMAT dropped below 28. Granted this range is easy to determine in hindsight. I mentioned that many people believe buy and hold is the best way to go. This is very true if you value your time. I am eating up time watching these tech stocks lately... This strategy may decrease your pain and agony while you wait for AMAT to climb, but may give you a heart attack if you sell at 30/31 and AMAT jumps to 36/37 and you are out! So what do you think? Steve