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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (145730)	1/28/2019 1:14:51 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217836

re <<safe investments>> ... 2-5 yrs treasuries and blue chip (not GE) corporates, staggered, all paying what a polite checking account used to pay in the good old days re <<2020>> ... am guessing the trump can win, as his supporters are to the core loving what he is trying to do, shaking, draining, surfacing, etc etc whereas his non-supporters are supporting all sorts of could-be leaders should trump not win due to any perceived subterfuge, watch out for ultra divisiveness, and the round would make current atmosphere appear polite I am guessing based on sense by view from across a very big ocean distance and at 30K feet

To: carranza2 who wrote (145730)	1/28/2019 7:47:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217836

old theme, maybe still good friend who recently sold a lot of gold in course of reorganisation is not jubilant about being gold-less / goldless acting-man.com Incrementum Inflation Signal Update – A Reversal To “Rising Inflation” Mark Valek and Ronnie Stoeferle Introductory Remarks by PTWe have discussed the proprietary Incrementum Inflation Indicator in these pages on previous occasions, but want to quickly summarize its salient features again. It is a purely market-based indicator, this is to say, its calculation is based exclusively on market prices and price ratios derived from market prices. However, contrary to most measures of inflation expectations, the Incrementum Inflation Signal is not primarily focused on yield differentials, such as is e.g. the case with 5-year breakeven inflation rates. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate is derived from the differential between 5-year treasury note yields and 5-year TIPS yields. Interestingly, it has recently begun to tick up as well after declining sharply for several months. The Incrementum Inflation Indicator instead focuses on the prices of traditional inflation beneficiaries (several of them are mentioned below), many of which tend to lead CPI by a considerable margin. The indicator has recently switched from “falling” to “rising inflation”, which has important implications for investors. Below follows the official announcement of the shift by our friends Mark J. Valek and Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, the co-managers of the Incrementum fund family. The Incrementum Inflation Signal Reverses – by Mark J. Valek and Ronald-Peter StoeferleGrowing Concerns About Economic GrowthAs of the beginning of January, our proprietary inflation indicator has switched from “FALLING INFLATION” to a full blown “RISING INFLATION” signal. The reversal was triggered by the latest development in the gold/silver-ratio, which has weakened from 87 to currently 83. Moreover, gold mining stocks (HUI) broke out vs. the broad equity market (SPX) and gold itself also switched to a long signal. Only the broad commodity market (BCOM) still shows a somewhat lackluster performance, but seems to be in the process of building a base as well. In our view, one can make a reasonable argument that gold is entering the next stage of its bull market. Miners seem to have put in quite a solid bottom, too. Our assumption was confirmed by the most recent surge in M&A activity (Randgold & Barrick, Newmont & Goldcorp). We think the strong move in precious metals is the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” for a weaker USD environment, a rise in commodities and ultimately increasing price inflation. As we have discussed in various publications, we still take the view that the Fed will eventually have to make a “monetary U-turn”. This will include falling interest rates, the end of QT and sooner or later another round of QE. Quite recently growth concerns have increased globally. Central bankers are increasingly worried about faltering growth and it seems that a synchronized economic downturn might be on the horizon. In fact, the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index is nearing decline rates that have foretold either recessions or, in the post 2008 world, incremental Fed/Central Bank liquidity injections. ECRI Weekly Leading Index – Growth Rate (%). The WLI growth metric is quite useful as a leading economic indicator. For details on its construction see here. It currently sits at a 6-year low. [PT] Running Out of Wiggle RoomTherefore, the global economic situation hardly provides much leeway for too many more rate increases, especially in combination with QT which has moved to its full extent of 50bn USD per month as of October 2018. Since then, financial markets have already felt the tremors of collapsing liquidity. As has been pointed out quite frequently, the yield curve has steadily flattened, which indicates that the rate hike cycle may be coming to an end sooner rather than later. US 2yr & 10yr note yields and recessions. The spread between 2 year and 10 year yields as a proxy for the steepness of the yield curve. [PT] Chances are, that we are now entering an environment of stagflation which we have been warning about for a long time. Once it is obvious that the normalization process of the Fed is faltering, we expect the long overdue depreciation of financial assets relative to real assets to begin. S&P 500 (left hand scale) & Bloomberg Commodity Index (right hand scale). An enormous gap has opened up between the valuations of “paper assets” and “real assets”. This is reminiscent of the late 1990s. [PT] Stimulus is Already UnderwayOn the back of this development the price action of gold is looking very healthy and rising financial market risk will present a significant driver for gold demand. Moreover, recently commodity prices in general also seem to show some signs of life. As we have outlined in last years “ In Gold we Trust Report” a suspension (or even a reversal) of the rate hike cycle would be huge news for the commodity and especially the precious metals sector. Moreover, we have been pointing out the potential of a slowdown of the Chinese economy that has already caused the PBoC to intervene aggressively. Also, China now seems to be implementing fiscal stimulus as well. As was just announced, tax rates on individuals and corporations— as well as VAT — will be cut. The Ministry is even considering ways to reduce social security fees to ease pressures on small companies. We believe that Western central banks and governments will (have to) follow the lead of China soon! Investment Impact We are currently increasing our allocation toward the precious metal sector, which has undergone a pronounced phase of creative destruction. Considering the recent change of momentum, we are looking at gold miners, with a slight overweight in mid-tier companies as well as silver miners. Furthermore, we are building positions in commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, RUB), diversified commodity investments (BCOM) and some EM exposure. Ladies and gentlemen, we believe that current valuations in inflation sensitive assets are a tremendous buying opportunity which we want to take advantage of. Best regards from Liechtenstein, Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle Charts by: St. Louis Fed, Advisor Perspectives/Doug Short, Incrementum Chart captions by PT

To: carranza2 who wrote (145730)	1/30/2019 4:51:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217836

perhaps interim up, dare we hope? zerohedge.com Technical Signals For Gold and The Mining Shares Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News An improving technical picture can be a key driver of the institutional fund flows that will be necessary to drive COMEX gold and the mining shares upward in the weeks ahead. However, let's make one thing perfectly clear before we go any further... I understand that the price of COMEX gold and silver is managed and manipulated by The Bullion Banks. You likely understand this, too. However, 99.8% of the institutional and hedge funds managers in the world DO NOT understand the historical fact of gold price management that dates back to the 1950s. Therefore, don't give me this stuff about " technical signals don't matter in a manipulated market". They DO matter—precisely for the reason mentioned above. Of the 99.8% of money managers who don't understand how the gold market truly operates, a significant number will decide to allocate cash to gold, silver and the mining shares this year, and they will do so for a number of geopolitical and economic reasons. They will also do it for the additional "alpha" they think they can add by allocating funds to a sector that is well-positioned technically. And this is where technicals matter. So, to that end, let's take some time to assess some common technical indicators to see if they are working in our favor. Let's start with COMEX gold. You're likely familiar with the term "golden cross". This occurs when a short-term moving average of price moves up and through a longer-term moving average. As you can see below, the price of COMEX gold accelerated higher in December, immediately after the 50-day MA "goldenly crossed" the 100-day back on November 29. As technical signals go, however, an even more bullish signal is a golden cross of the 50-day through the 200-day. When these two bearishly crossed back in June, technical and hedge funds were quick to liquidate their COMEX gold futures, and price fell nearly 10% over the next sixty days. With that in mind, take a look at what just occurred yesterday—a bullish golden cross. Can we now expect further technical and hedge fund additions? The short answer is "yes". Combine this technical picture with the coming reversal of Fed policy and the growing global demand for physical gold, and you get a recipe for an increased flow of funds that is in search of exposure to gold in all its forms. This will invariably lead to higher prices, despite the continuing efforts of The Banks to dilute the float of available COMEX contracts. A higher COMEX gold price will also drive institutional funds to seek gold exposure through the acquisition of mining shares. Already, the recent spate of large-cap mergers has shown a spotlight upon the sector, and this has helped to spur some interest. However, the relative outperformance of the mining shares versus the S&P since November is catching a lot of institutional eyes, too. As you can see below, the HUI mining share index is up 11.3% over the past three months. Compare this to the S&P 500, which is off 0.6%. And be sure to note the looming technical breakout and golden cross of the GDX, a very popular large-cap mining share ETF that is often used by institutional money managers as a diversified way to gain mining sector exposure. In summary, 2019 and 2020 will be memorable years for gold and silver investors. If you're not sure why that's the case, please be certain to review the 2019 forecast we published two weeks ago:https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-2019-price-forecast-craig-hemke-15-012019.html Additionally, understand that a growing flow of funds will likely overwhelm the few investment opportunities available to personal and institutional investors alike. The movement of just a tiny fraction of global assets under management into gold, silver and the mining shares will result in tremendous, out-sized moves for the sector. We saw this in 1980. We saw some of this occur again from 2008-2011. And we're about to see it play out once more in 2019-2020.

To: carranza2 who wrote (145730)	1/30/2019 4:53:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217836

On 30 Jan 2019, at 9:59 PM, H wrote: I wish they'd stay quiet. The same analyst was extremely bearish on gold in late 2015/ early 2016. It was his "best short idea" then and promptly rallied by more than 300 bucks. Central bank buying is not bullish. It's not even a drop in the ocean in terms of volume. Normally I'd see it as a contrary indicator, although one could make a case that China and Russia are at it for geopolitical reasons, which may have different implications. kitco.com 'Long Gold' Is Goldman's Favorite Commodity Play Right Now( Kitco News) - On top of being bullish on gold prices this year, Goldman Sachs’ favorite commodity play at the moment is “long gold.” Gold has a lot of potential and can hit $1,450, according to Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. When asked about his top play on commodities during an interview with Bloomberg this week, Currie replied: “Long gold, we see that one with the most upside.” The reason for such an optimistic outlook on the yellow metal this year includes recession fears, gold’s wealth-effect, and central bank buying, according to Goldman. “We believe the world is A-ok right now, however, recessionary fears remain high and that is increasing the physical demand for gold. Wealth-effect is better for gold, and finally central banks are buying,” Currie said. In terms of which banks are buying, Currie highlighted that India bought 70 tonnes last year and China started re-entering the market. “One hundred tonnes of central bank buying gets you to $1,425 alone. Our target is $1,450,” he said. This view supports Goldman’s report published earlier in January, in which Currie said that Goldman was raising its gold price forecast for 2019 due to growing recession fears. “Going forward gold will be supported primarily by growing demand for defensive assets. The same is also true of central-bank buying, with rising geopolitical tensions incentivizing more central banks to re-enter the gold market,” Currie wrote. Increased central bank buying has been at the center of analysts discussions when it comes to higher gold prices. TD Securities issued a report in the middle of January, arguing that higher gold demand from central banks will lead to higher prices in 2019. “Central bank gold holdings have grown by a dramatic 13 percent (roughly 3,900 tonnes) since the lows recorded back in 2009 and are expected to grow by another 800 tonnes over the next two years,” TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek wrote in a report. “In addition to continued purchases by Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and India, now includes China— the yellow metal could well move above our positive projections.” The Canadian bank also listed several reasons why central banks are buying more these days. “The desire to diversify central bank FX portfolios from the USD, which still represents over 60 percent of global FX reserves, is one of the key reasons to buy gold,” Melek wrote. “The U.S. [will] likely [be] sharing its superpower status with China (possibly India over the long term), [and] gold’s reliability, time-tested ability to preserve wealth and almost universal acceptance makes it a good reserve asset.” So far this year, gold is proving to be resilient in light of recovering equities and U.S. dollar. February Comex gold futures hit a seven-month high on Tuesday, last trading at $1,309.9, up 2% year-to-date.