Hello bruiser98, <<Venezuela>>
... coup, gold bars, rebellion, foreign machinations, ... everything and all about money, spun into freedom, choice, whatever, etc etc that would facilitate / enable change, that which must be backed by money, for money, against other money, to stop up the masses, turn them into revolutionaries.
all as opposed to by the ______, for the ______, against ______.
just my guess, that we should as usual, follow the money.
(1) I had viewed past attempts at coup in Venezuela as ones that were supported mostly by what remained of the business / intellectual / better-off / wealthier folks and the used-to-be wealthy folks and the self-exiles with property claims remaining in Venezuela - iow, the bitter folks, unorganised, dispirited, under-funded, not-well-backed.
(2) am generally unsympathetic to problems of the rich / elite in and of any society, especially once they start to ossify or rot, to the detriment of the greater good. am also traditionally ok with rebellions instigated and powered by underdog proletariats.
(3) in the case of Venezuela, am balanced, figuring that the pre-revolution business / intellectual classes have been re-educated enough and it is near time to get on with construction that perhaps only they can lead
(4) this current coup may prove to be different than earlier attempts - because perhaps the proletariats are tired of the corruption of the earlier revolutionary elites and it is time for a change, a thorough change
if what my cousins say are correct, that Message 32004057 teams Russia and China have been signalled by the rebellion that all debts shall be paid in full, then perhaps both teams would simply watch & brief as opposed to actively taking side of the incumbent
team China shall watch & brief per usual, am guessing, per usual non-interference by any outsiders
I am unclear what dog team Russia has in Venezuela but Putin seems intent on at least seemingly taking an active approach
(5) in any case I have been building a Venezuelan position in a game that would pay out should the rebellion / coup succeed, and pay even if not ... what I would call a win-win situation
(5-i) once upon a time (circa 2002 07) I made a wager on a Pakistani company that was a publicly-listed joint venture between International Power Plc of UK and local Pakistani folks, Hub Power that was the largest power station in Pakistan
the wager worked out Message 17738578
<<“First, Hubco's strong cash flow allows it to pay a historically rich cash dividend, now about 31%, which amounted to nearly 40% of its earnings per share in fiscal 2001 ... Pakistan government had never honored the contract from day 1 of Hub operation until WAT started, and US rescheduled Pakistani debt, and Britain tagged along with some moral support. Hub has many international institutional shareholders, controlled by International Power of Britain, and owes 49 international banks a bundle of money.
The business model of Hub is simple: the US deploys its troops, the Japanese pumps in its money, Russia offers its verbal support, China chucks in its acquiescence, Britain proffer its shoulder, India shouts threats, Iran does whatever, Hub Power gets paid its contractual tariff rate for power generation, and a Trini in Hong Kong can thus fund more platinum watches.
What do I know about Pakistan? Nothing except:
Message 17235656
"An aside: The driver used to work for my buddy who is now managing a foreign direct investment in Pakistan. I had dinner with the friend in early March while he was on R&R. He tells me Pakistan is no fun, especially with 3 armored cars, 6 bodyguards, hand guns and grenades (I taught him that trick because he shouldn’t do TV style shoortout agaist professionals within the confines of his living room) around the house, and no clubs for entertainment. He has a box of shoe polish for instant-melanin-enhancement and a presto-life-preserving robe in his attaché case at all times and is friend with all the generals. He misses his China posting, but getting lots of fiat paper for his troubles."
Chugs, Jay
P.S. The fact that I do a lot of work in China power generation sector, and that I have a European friend who used to work in China and now in Pakistan, riding around in armored cars and hobnobing with generals, and that I am now buying Hub Power only means that I read the above quoted WSJ article, and thought it a good idea, unlike Martha whatshername who traded on inside information.>>>>
(5-ii) A few weeks later Message 18080562 <<(c) I received notification that my precious Hub Power of Pakistan will pay a dividend of USD 1.3844 per share (value date Sept 16th). I had bought my shares for USD 9.75 per share on July 16th 2002, and I suppose 14.2% for every few months is a fair return, courtesy of WATWOT effort:>>
(5-iii) A few weeks more Message 18348022 <<(b) I sold half of my Pakistani Hub Power at 13.7 (pay no attention to stationary bloomberg quote), originally purchase noted here ... thus showing a 41% capital appreciation, plus 14.22% net dividend paid this past October, netting 55.22% of half the position and letting the other half of position ride. I am expecting another 14-15% dividend to be declared in February and paid in April, if the station is still standing at that time.
I am selling because Pakistan is Asia's best performing market for 2002, and thus probably not for 2003, >>
(5-iv) then interim update Message 18822243 <<I bought Hub Power at 9.5 last July (my trade was apparently the last trade all around the world). I collected 14% dividend last October, and am waiting for another 14+% in this month.
The last indicated ask was 16, but no bid price and zero volume.
... so, I am guessing that this is what the bottom looks like, barring Enronian/WorldCom type of situation;0)
I am counting on the US to pacify Afghanistan and cleanse Pakistan within 32 months so that my stock can be liquid again, else I break even cash-on-cash at the end of that time by collecting the 28+% dividends, unless plant is blown to bits before then. I doubt the plant has war insurance covering it.
I have almost as much in Hub as I do in QCOM, and it is a better buy than QCOM, so far, so good, unless my QCOM straddle works out as expected, in which case it will have done almost as well as Hub Power:0)>>
(5-v) Hub Power worked out over 10 months elapsed time Message 18982624
<<I have divested my position in one WAT-WOT-Whatnot theatre and sold my Pakistan-based Hub Power for USD 14.5 bought at USD 9.75 and under Message 17738578
Message 17742648
Message 17984572
Message 18080562
Message 18155251
Message 18279003
… thus achieving 63% fair return over 10 months elapsed time.>>
We like fair returns :0)
(6) Now I make a wager on Venezuela, given that ...
(6-i) Venezuela closer to the very bottom as opposed to at the extreme top
(6-ii) Events could be going right, literally and immediately, or by and by and eventually bye bye to Maduro
(6-iii) quickly looked at some Venezuelan themed wagers, and picked one ... shall tell more once position fully established
Power to the people. Long live the revolution. May the Force be with the rebellion. Down w/ Maduro. Rah Rah and Rah.
:0)
Best, Tj |
