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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fintas who wrote (6733)	2/17/2019 12:33:25 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26704

Interesting that you say this. I doubt very few picked the exact top and got in near the lows... AMAT was kicked out long ago by ME. So I have no skin in the game. However I do know one who does and he was out in the 60's and came back in in the low 30's. but I was hired by a local investment firm managing some accounts for guys who founded tech companies here as an analyst to help her (the VP) convince the president to take profits and reduce exposure to stocks, especially the ones like Lucent that were going crazy.... I was one of the few voices in the Silicon Valley saying to TAKE PROFITS and buy some value stocks in 2000.... We had a lot of meetings where the president kept saying something like "why shouldn't we sell everything and buy Lucent since it is doing better than anything?" Discussions of tulips, insanity, value, etc. were quite interesting. I even showed GE was overvalued 2x relative to S&P 500 probably due to the CNBC folks having that as the only stock they could own and they were cheer leading it daily on TV. We had a lunch bet about if AMAT would hit some price and my TA won the lunch but it rolled over so fast I felt guilty taking it (in 2001) when she paid off as she was right in the long-term (which is what we were trying to do to protect large profits by diversifying). FWIW, I added a lot at $30 for my newsletter on December 24.... and got some at $29.99 for my trading IRA and still hold those.... I' also holding shares at $11 and $12s in my ROTH... and way down at $3 in my taxable account. It has a nice dividend so no real rush to sell the ROTH and taxable shares but may take profits at the ma-200.... already took profits in Lam so not a rush. Like Bob, my real goal is to accumulate shares over the long term of good stocks (with HUGE moats) that pay good dividends. These are still quite volatile so they make it even easier if you have the stomach for the volatility.