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Non-Tech : MOOV moves? together with VUPDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (18)	1/20/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30

Hi Barry; Well I see MOOV as having some intrinsic value as to VUPDAs price , she will at some point jump to .75 or at least .70 of VUPDA , if the merger happens and all signs point to it will happen. That's a long story. As for book value with the way this is set up VUPDA is now selling at .36 of what her future book value will be after the merger. Reading up on both of them, there is a deal with rentrack, they rent tapes, of course combined they get a better deal on that. The book value does not lay in the tapes, but in the Real Estate. One story ran about how Potter the CEO of VUPDA was into developing REAL ESTATE, in a way I see him using the video rental bis to leverage that aspect, and think he is more concerned about real estate than the video rental bis. In a way this thing looks like a RIET to me, dressed up as a video rental company. At some point he can break out and sell off locations to whatever or who ever and make more money there than renting the videos. You got to know he has an angle of some sort, I may not have it figured , but with the cash flow , and the book value, and the depressed price, I'm in it. Let everybody that wants to buy the high flyers..I'l stick with buying what's out of favor as long as it is below book. They are not in trouble with dept. or any of that crap, just showed some poor profits the last quarter, ( which they warned of ) but have gotten taken down into a huge oversold condition if you look at the rest of the equities that also showed some poor quarters. 3 months from now there won't likely be a MOOV..as it will have gone into VUPDA.. BTW I checked the shorts for DEC. plenty of them..that's good they have to cover sooner or later..and I think she has found bottom, at least it looks that way. MOOV when I last looked has only traded 12300 shares today, a full 12000 went at 1 11/32 only 300 at 1-5/16th Also like I predicted, the spread on VUPDA has widened from what it was because the MM are low on inventory, most of her trades today at 2 3/8 , they try to keep her ticked down to buy inventory, but both are showing they want to tick up. My 2000 buy Friday at 1-5/16 is in the money. :-) This thing is taking longer than I like, but it's coming along. I'm not facing any exdate and will give it time. Heck I've tossed away more on options that went to option heaven ( that place were they go when the time runs out and they die ) than I got in this play. I'm looking at it as if I had bought some calls, ( like 140 contracts ) but at a cheaper commission. They are close to the money calls, and will pop into the money the day the merger is announced. At that point I'l see if I want to hold them, or how many I can sell and still have a balance left that are home free. At worse I can dump out any time and not lose anything near what I would if I were playing options. I now see VUPDA at B/A 2-1/4 / 2-3/8 today ..well you could easily sell splitting the bid for 2-5/16..but I bet you can't buy any less than 2-3/8. With MOOV I could sell at 1-11/32 the way things look, but I bet a real buyer will cause her to tick to a 1-3/8 ask in a heart beat. Good heavens I saw all that judged news on EGHT and looked things over and went on that thread and said look out ! Sure enough it was a trap..she dumped over 20% this morning, it was so obvious that they were selling into the rally Friday, man I bet there are some sick pups looking at her today. Well just checked another 2000 went on MOOV at 1-11/32, still only 300 today at 1-5/16, and the MMs just raised the bid on VUPDA from 2-1/4 to 2-9/16, ha ha they need shares. If you havec time after reading all this , Go look at EGHT, what a setup that was, look at my last post on her. A 10K block just went on MOOV at 1-11/32 that's 24k with only 300 at 1-5/16th don't say later I didn't tell you she was ticking up. As hard as I traded AOL optins last year and made nothing for my time I sure learned to see the little uptick signs from downtick ones. I only hit AOL good twice, she ate a lot of my long term puts, I got into short trem trading her and managed to get some of what she ate back, but still wound up on the short end of the stick, and getting out of the hole was to time cumsuming..When she does fall it will be a long fall, but the LT premiums are also high enough to make her tough to play. You know what as silly as it sounds, I've looked at her compared to some others, ( when the mullets get scared and start dumping DISNEY..thats when AOL has a good chance of falling ) odd; they are not connected in any way but the same mentality seems to run the two seperate gangs that play them. Jim