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Technology Stocks : Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William L. Vu who wrote (2754)	1/20/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3276

Rebuttal: 1) Logic does not move a stock. 2) I can't rebut that, your crystal ball is as clear as mine. Probably safer to trade on pure technical basis anyway - as long as the market direction is properly determined. After trading DEC between 24 and 35 I don't consider this a low level. The price is low on a multiple basis and has always been reasonable, so while Palmer and company dont come in with quarter surprises it can rise and fall on the whims of the market. Large options speculations may have been partly the cause of the most recent fall from grace. "Strength in Europe" is good for DEC because they have majority of sales in europe. There was a post re: special version NT-only alpha. Was this bogus? I didn't find anything to corroborate it. Greg

To: William L. Vu who wrote (2754)	1/21/1998 8:21:00 AM
From: Tom M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3276

William/all, what would you price DEC at without the Intel deal going through before say May/June, in time for it to make up the big Q4? DEC needs those discounts to kick in, especially with their recently announced 50% price cuts & Sun's new Darwin line competing. CPQ & others will of course have to follow with more price cuts and therefore more competition. I'm aware of DEC getting back over some favorable MAs but I'm too concerned about following TA on a company that was severely impacted by Asia, and has the rumor of FTC challenge on the Intel deal. You mentioned the market doesn't like uncertainty, well I don't see that last earnings report as clearing it up a whole lot. Your main positive point is expectation for a strong Q4 that depends on a rapid FTC approval. I originally didn't have much concern over the approval until that press release stating the team was leaning toward not recommending it. I also originally didn't have much concern over rumors but almost all the big news out of DEC lately has been leaked out first and was true (terms of Intel settlement, Cabletron deal, even "skittish" over DEC's earnings). I appreciate your comments and analysis. In general (not DEC related), are you confident enough in TA to think it'll ignore Asia's impact and have us trading at even higher multiples while earnings and growth slow or decrease? Don't get me wrong, just looking for discussion, Thanks, Tom

To: William L. Vu who wrote (2754)	1/21/1998 9:53:00 AM
From: Charles Skeen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3276

Re: << technical analysis>> FWIW, yesterday the Decision Point system (on AOL) switched from SELL to BUY -- the SELL position yielded a 17% return at its peak but only 1.5% when closed out. Decision Point has been good at identifying long-term price trends, but is often whip-sawed in the short term. Also yesterday, DEC crossed the 200-day MA on the upside. My opinion: If it holds today and for a couple more days, DEC is capable of moving to the 49-50 range in the next 2-3 months. I think that the recent guidance on earnings for the coming 2 quarters was helpful to the stock price, even though current quarter earnings estimates will have to be revised downward, as there is now greatly improved earnings visibility. Fundamentally, the company seems to be making the right moves and revenue growth should improve from recent quarters. To all: Is there anything else going on that would account for the recent upmove? Charlie.