Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (31345)	1/21/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: David Lawrence	Respond to of 61433

I guess your point is that there will have to be much more backbone capacity, and faster servers everywhere. Shucks!

To: pass pass who wrote (31345)	1/21/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: DX	Respond to of 61433

There is a technology called DWDM(dense wavelength division multiplex) which increases the capacity of an optic fiber by 1600% or more. LU is one of the DWDM vendors which supports 16 x OC96. In LU's labs, it has achieved 132(?). Besides, the equipment is not very expensive. Regards,

To: pass pass who wrote (31345)	1/21/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 61433

<<Ok, here is a fundamental question: If everyone uses a DSL modem to get on the Net and hit Silicon Investor (for example) simultaneously, what kind of connection should SI's server be using? OC-192 and beyond?>> By that time SI will probably be upgraded from a text only system too. All that bandwidth up front means LOTs of ASND stuff at the core!

To: pass pass who wrote (31345)	1/21/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Steve Morytko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Very often the "network" takes the blame for slow hardware (server processor, disks, net adapter, ...) and software (OS, db application, device drivers, file system design, etc.). Someone else mentioned an "upgrade" to graphics ... SI is probably MUCH more responsive because it is primarily a text based service. Please don't "upgrade"!! It's probably more important to get the server close to core of the Internet reducing the paths (bottlenecks) to the non-core areas. The key is to use an ISP with good access to the core (perhaps the ISP take service from multiple core providers). Added bandwidth doesn't mean a thing if there's a bottleneck downstream.

To: pass pass who wrote (31345)	1/23/1998 2:29:00 AM
From: Matt Webster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Pass pass, good question. I don't think SI's connection needs to change. The only difference would be if we all started posting larger posts. As it is now, SI can handle the load, so if we all had DSL modems, the difference would be that we would be able to access SI a few seconds faster. I don't think it will matter to low bandwidth things like SI, but will accelerate demand for service if we see more bandwidth intensive video, Dynamic HTML, and Java applets. You could be correct in that ISP's are strapped for cash, as Ascend and other forums show. If they anticipate an explosion in bandwidth demand and know that they cannot keep up the core at the same rate as the edge, then they will try to adopt a slow, managed pattern of deployment. The edge cannot lead the core, or else the benefits of ADSL will be lost to a bottleneck at the ISP or regional NAP. This could slow adoption of ADSL more than is currently built into the price. As I've said in other posts, all dynamics point to a slow deployment of ADSL. It is in the interest of telcos to manage the migration from fast analog services to ADSL. There is a shortage of trained technicians, so that is a barrier. Windows 98 and NT 5.0 are delayed or fairly far off on the horizon, so any DSL technology will tend to wait on that. Add in a cash strapped industry and it all ties together. THe only wildcard I see is if AT&T or WCOM/MCIC go off on a spending spree trying to generate hype. AT&T has the cash to do this, but I would be very surprised. I think there is probably some upside left in PAIR, but I would start to worry about a bubble in AWRE and WSTL. Those are one trick ponies. If anyone doubts how fast they can deflate on some worry, see Cymer or Citrix. Matt