Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : INDONESIA'S PT TELECOM(TLK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: soozathelooza who wrote (52)	1/21/1998 6:06:00 PM
From: Duke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 947

Suharto faces key moment in power Indonesia needs an orderly and stable transition at the top As expected, and despite the rumblings on the ground, President Suharto has accepted a re-nomination for a further five-year term. If he gets re-elected, he will remain in power till 2003 when he will be 82 years old -- unless he decides to step down mid-way to make room for a younger successor. But this time, Mr Suharto may face an unprecedented challenge, because there are now people bold enough to contest him -- like Sukarno's daughter Megawati and Muslim leader Amien Rais. But his re-election is not in doubt because the ruling Golkar, which nominates him, and its allies dominate the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). The MPR will convene the presidential election in March. The markets may not have reacted positively yesterday to Mr Suharto's re-nomination. But the immediate effect should be to provide stability to the country, at a time of great flux both at home and in the region. Refusal to stand again, or keeping his intentions vague, would have led to jockeying and manoeuvring by various groups in the run-up to the March election. This would be far from helpful at this time when Indonesia's biggest priority is to stabilise the economy, not worsen it with political uncertainty. So, whatever his critics may say of him, Mr Suharto is actually keeping the country together, even though it makes him look like he's clinging on to power. Still, the president is facing his most important moment. The country needs him to take it out of its present mire. But there are those who hope that, given his advancing age, he would step aside with his record intact, and not go down in ignominy, which could be caused by the financial crisis. The hope is that he uses this crucial stretch to chart a peaceful transition to a new leader so that a leadership change, when it comes, will not be unstable like in the 1960s. He could choose to finish his new term, or step down halfway, which is deemed preferable. But one thing is certain: It's better if the choice is his. Indonesia needs an orderly and stable transfer of power. The best time to do this is when a leader like President Suharto is still around to ensure a smooth handover. For this reason alone, the president needs to take seriously the growing call to end the vagueness of political succession by putting in place a clear successor as vice-president. The next vice-president should not be a mere adornment of the constitutional requirement for a No 2. He must be seen, treated and accepted by everyone as the successor-in-waiting. Mr Suharto's move yesterday to signal his choice of B J Habibie, the research and technology minister, as his preferred running mate is a step in this direction. But it may not be seen to be good enough; he should make his choice unambiguous. The MPR may not go along, but members of the House can, and should, then be allowed to put up contending candidates. The possibility of Mr Suharto being challenged this time should not be taken as a disaster, as in the past. It is a healthy development as it gives the people a broader slate to choose from. The days of the calon tunggal or mono-candidacy -- when Indonesia's presidential election has only one contestant -- are over. It cannot continue simply because there is not going to be anybody else like President Suharto.

To: soozathelooza who wrote (52)	1/21/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: Duke	Respond to of 947

Asia needs G-7 bail-out as IMF's too small: investment adviser By Siow Li Sen [SINGAPORE] The regional financial crisis can only be resolved by a bail-out from the G-7 countries because the International Monetary Fund is too small to cope, said London-based Cross Border Capital, an asset allocation adviser. The Asian crisis is first and foremost a solvency problem -- the inability of corporates to pay their debts -- and not a liquidity problem, said CBC in its assessment of the problem. Not only is the IMF too small, it is also a fund and not a bank and cannot therefore create credit. In addition, IMF's US$200 billion (S$349 billion) of resources are effectively committed. CBC estimates that the size of the crisis could reach US$1 trillion or 10-15 per cent of the regional gross domestic product. "Thus, the Asian bail-out must come via greater liquidity provision from G-7 central banks. This will permit debt rollovers and new lending," CBC said in a report last Friday. G-7 groups the industrialised countries of the US, several European countries, Canada and Japan. The regional crisis will be a protracted one because capital must be written off and profits re-established, unlike the 1995 Mexico crisis which was quickly over. Growth will skid badly this year, despite the massive drop in currencies' values and the likely jump in the US' trade deficit. CBC said resolving the regional crisis requires two other events. Other than easing by the G-7, currency boards should be set up for the worst-hit Asian economies in order to restore confidence in their currencies, and local banks must be recapitalised, which involves getting bad debts off balance sheets and encouraging foreign banks to make takeovers and buy up stakes. The problem with easing up on liquidity is how to selectively reflate the economies, said Song Seng Wun, regional economist at GK Goh. "Selective liquidity injection is very difficult to apply," said Mr Song, who noted that the worst excesses are the property and construction sectors.