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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Chanoux who wrote (11293)	1/21/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12298

I hold APM long, and rather than aggrevate the shorts, I remain mostly silent. However, today I can't resist pointing out that RDRT announced the loss I've been expecting, of $1.88. I'd like to point out that this exceeds APM's loss of 1.67. I'd also like to say that the Seagate conference call shocked me. These guys weren't holding much back. They did say that they were exiting the OEM head supply having shipped appx 1 milloin heads (over what period wasn't clear to me), looked to maintain 20% outside sourcing of heads\platters etc for flexibility, and most importantly, were just now phasing out TFI. The last TFI platters ship when the Ireland Factory closes. Note that a big chunk of Seagates charges relate to closing of a TFI facility. Hmm. So APM is completing it's MR transition in phase with not only RDRT, but with SEG.

To: Dave Chanoux who wrote (11293)	1/21/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: Jonathan Bird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

You seem to be looking for rational arguments (Indeed you have led a very rational argument since the stock was in the 30's). But unfortunately the market is not completely rational. My assumption has been that the market(for a stock) is most rational when faced with reality, in the form of an earnings report. For this reason, I don't dismiss this recent upward movement as much as others on the board seem to. We have had 5 updays now, all in the worst of times. I'm going to close my short completely VERY soon if this keeps up. The thought of holding this short, and looking back in a month or so with the stock at 15+ gives me the willies. I can just imagine saying to myself "How could you be so stupid not to recognize the bottom? The HDD stocks were rising on Bad news! It doesn't get any more obvious then that!!" But I still think its only a near term bottom. A case for buying (which I know you won't buy...) is that all the bad news is out, there cannot be any more. The projections have considered all the bad news and they are as bad as they are going to get. Nowhere to go but up; it's worth the bet. Your right, I dont buy it. It can ALWAYS get worse. I don't expect to be able to call the bottom except in retrospect. But considering that at the tail end of last Q thigs were still deteriorating in the sector it would seem silly to think that it's going to stop here, or get any better any time soon. All the earnings projections, and comments from HDD companys, seem to be based on a stabiilzation of the HDD market conditions. APM price = .7 (that's point seven) times WDC price I can't argue with that. But i'm bangin my head trying to figure out why WDC is going up also. :) From a technical standpoint, we are no longer oversold. If APM doesn't turn down thurs or fri then im outahere. What do you have as a price target for APM, considering the expected 4 dollar loss this year? What range do you think we will settle into? Jon Bird