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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1879)	1/21/1998 10:52:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

Estimates in First Call were for .06 per share. They made that but it was lowered to .05 per share after accounting for options and such. I don't know if the analysts took that into account. Regardless, overall it was in line like you say.

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1879)	1/21/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: EdR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4134

Hiram & All, Help me see if I'm missing anything. In looking at the Q12/31/97 of HLIT it seems to me that the Net Income of $580k consisted of a $509k Tax Credit and Interest & Other Income of 168k combined with a loss from operations of 97k. Ed...

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1879)	1/22/1998 1:06:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 4134

<Steve, what disappointment?> Well, HLIT isn't exactly a widely held stock, so it'll trade more on what the current holders expected (if anything). OTOH, First Call shows HLIT to be 64% owned by institutions, the group usually more apt to punish a stock if EPS doesn't meet consensus (not Zack's - First Call - the consensus service that most fund managers and professionals use. However, a number still use I/B/E/S, which expected .04! - SUCH is the earning's game). This will also depend on whether existing funs are more momentum oriented and any associated company comments. Anyone know if there was a conference call, and if so (or even if not) what was said? Guess we'll see in the morning. Anyway, the following is how it was reported on the Dow tape this afternoon: ========== Earnings Surprise Summary: 3:00 P.M. - 5:00 P.M. Upside Surprises Companies whose quarterly net income (or loss) was better than the mean estimate provided by First Call: Net Or First Call (Loss) Mean Estimate AK Steel AKS 4Q 66c 59c Anaren Micwv ANEN 2Q 19c 16c Asyst Tech ASYT 3Q Op 41c 39c Cirrus Logic CRUS 3Q Op 17c 15c Concord Comm CCRD 4Q 7c 3c FORE Sys FORE 3Q 10c 9c Hyperion Sftwr HYSW 2Q 22c 20c Imperial Banc IMP 4Q Cont 77c Pre Split 56c Legato Sys LGTO 4Q 26c 25c Mecon MECN 3Q 7c 4c Microsoft Corp MSFT 2Q 85c 82c Parlex Corp PRLX 2Q 13c 11c Pinnacle Wst PNW 4Q 21c 17c QLogic Cp QLGC 3Q 43c 40c Ryerson Tull.A RT 4Q Op 27c 25c S C I Systems SCI 2Q 55c 53c Xircom XIRC 1Q 11c 9c Downside Surprises Companies whose quarterly net income didn't meet the First Call mean estimate or companies that reported an unexpected loss or a greater-than-expected loss: Net Or First Call (Loss) Mean Estimate Altera Corp ALTR 4Q 38c 39c Claremont Tech Group CLMT 2Q 4c 6c Hrmnc Light HLIT 4Q 5c 6c ODS Networks ODSI 4Q (21c) (5c) Read Rite RDRT 1Q Op 2c 7c On-Target Earnings Companies whose quarterly net income matched the First Call mean estimate: Net Or First Call (Loss) Mean Estimate Adept Tech ADTK 2Q 13c 13c CMAC CMT 4Q 81c 81c Intevac IVAC 4Q Op 28c 28c Lam Research LRCX 2Q 9c 9c Quality Semicdtr QUAL 1Q (13c) (13c) SanDisk SNDK 4Q 27c 27c So Far Today Upside Surprises 65 Downside Surprises 31 On-Target Earnings 19 ==================== RE: CVUS/momentum plays: Sure, there are many examples of companies' earnings coming up short and it having no effect on the stock. It'll depend in large part how the future outlook (both next quarter and next 4 quarters) was presented to the fund owners. So was there a public conference call? RE: CVUS directly, I understand from NBMO analyst Bill Vogel, he thinks there's a reasonable chance the auction may not go, or if it does, be declared void, because of purported "discriminatory" Auction rules (section 251) which don't allow the RBOCs to effectively participate. But I agree, all fixed digital microwave (24Ghz, 28Ghz and 38Ghz) is a powerfully enabling local loop technology (especially taking account the potential capacity), in which the CLEC's can also provide LD, owning the customer end-end. And if the auction DOES occur, even if eventually voided, it'll still wind up rough-gauging the licence value of existing fixed wireless spectrum holders such as WCII, TGNT and ARTT. So tomorrow's action will likely tell us more about the demographics of the current (and imminently potential) HLIT owners than anything else. In any case, the story seems still intact, barring continuing significant Asian concerns. Sure would be interesting to have heard the associated comments to fund managers, publicly disseminated or otherwise. Hasta manana- Steve