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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Erwin who wrote (9223)1/22/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: A. Fineigler  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Best bets for those toughing the current dive out might be companies with low or zero debt, large cash positions, deep-water equipment and contracts in place, low PE rates, and conservative management.

A number of co.'s fit this description (not SLB though). SDC is a very good match, for example.

AF



To: Erwin who wrote (9223)1/22/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: JHR  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
How do I access the NYME or another site for oil futures.Thanks.



To: Erwin who wrote (9223)1/22/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: chuck weir  Respond to of 95453
 
Erwin, thanks for sharing your thoughts; good points.



To: Erwin who wrote (9223)1/23/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: edward miller  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
From a contrarian point of view

RE: If you run out to the NYME and check the prices on March and
April contracts you will notice that they are less a bbl than February
contracts. This, to me, is a fundamental indication that there are
some bad times for any oil related equity in the near future and this
inverse price relationship didn't exist just a few days ago.

Several years ago, after the price of gold had dropped for years,
I noticed that gold contracts going out in time were at lower prices
than the near prices. Just like you have noted today with oil, I had
never seen that before. I don't have the exact figures at my fingers
but gold was near $300. What happened next? Gold rallied to over
$400 and has taken years to come back to $300.

The point is that perhaps the traders are as bearish now as they
will ever get. If true, this means a bottom is near.

I'm not trying to say you are wrong because (1) oil can drop from
here before finding a base, (2) the inverse price relationship can
hold for a while before something causes a change, or (3) with these
markets almost anything can happen, short term. My point is only
that there are other valid interpretations. For the record, I am
biased, with holdings in MDCO.

Ed Miller