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Biotech / Medical : Pharmacyclics (PCYC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (260)	1/22/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 717

Zeev: >> are you not concerned that the market valuation of PCYC is currently more than the "first horizon" market potential?>> You are forgetting Gd-Tex. The "first-horizon" for GD-Tex is 140,000 radiation treatments a year for brain metastases. Each of these has a current treatment cost of some $15k, so a $5k per patient charge for the likely 10-dose therapy seems reasonable. (Comments anyone?). This gives an unpartnered $700m/yr market for this indication alone. Perhaps more important, as long as there is reasonable assurance that the first horizon is not all there is, I only really get concerned if the size of the initial market is very small. (This might be Ligand's problem). In the case of PCYC, if their stuff works for breast cancer and for brain metastases, I believe it will work for a _lot_ more indications. Their initial trials tend to indicate that their drugs seem to accumulate in tumors no matter what the origin/type of the tumor was. (Although of course we'll only know this for sure once the multiple Phase II's are in). And while we're on first horizons, how about the opthalmic and atherosclerotic indications for Lu-Tex? Both of these are very large markets, even if you only look at peripheral arterial disease. (Although it is reasonable to discount them as still being very early, they do lend a certain "sizzle" to the stock). To my mind, the only reason this stock isn't much higher than it is today is that the market perceives it as a "Phase I" stock. I view their early results and basic approach as good enough when you look at them closely to make me believe that eventual approval and widespread use is very likely. I assume it will take the market a couple of years to come to the same conclusion as I have. Meantime I'm going to sit tight and buy on weakness. Contrary viewpoints welcomed! Peter